Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Seasonal Crossroads: Will Institutional Bet Signal a Bull Market Comeback?

Bitcoin faces a pivotal test as it begins September amid a historically weak seasonal backdrop and mixed signals from technical indicators. The cryptocurrency closed August down 6.5%, marking its first monthly decline since April, with price action breaking below key support levels, including the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud [1]. Analysts have identified critical support zones around $105,240, $101,366, and $100,000, with further losses potentially confirming the end of the current bull market [2].

Historically, September has been a challenging month for Bitcoin, with data showing an average return of -3.77% since 2013 and eight of the last 12 September months closing in the red [5]. This so-called "Red September" pattern is mirrored in traditional markets, where the S&P 500 has averaged -1.20% returns in September since 1928. Institutional behavior, including portfolio rebalancing and tax-loss harvesting, exacerbates the seasonal weakness [5]. However, some analysts argue that Bitcoin may avoid a September collapse by following a 2017-like pattern, where a sharp August decline was followed by a rebound from key support levels [1].

Technical analysis reveals divergent signals. A bearish divergence on the 14-month RSI suggests weakening momentum, while a "hidden bullish divergence" on the weekly RSI indicates potential resilience in buying pressure [1][3]. Analyst ZYN has suggested that Bitcoin could reach a fresh all-time high above $124,500 within 4–6 weeks if it holds near the $105,000–$110,000 support zone [1]. This zone, previously acting as resistance, has now flipped into a critical support level, signaling a potential reversal in trend.

Meanwhile, broader macroeconomic factors may provide a tailwind. The U.S. dollar has weakened against Bitcoin, with the 52-week correlation between the two slipping to -0.25, its lowest since 2023 [1]. Analysts have linked this to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could inject liquidity into the crypto market. The odds of a September rate cut stand at 78% according to Polymarket and 85.2% per the CME’s FedWatch tool, though some, like BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes, caution that a rate cut is not guaranteed [6]. A failure to cut rates could create market uncertainty and potentially trigger a correction if Bitcoin is already priced for a cut [6].

Institutional dynamics add complexity to the outlook. Whale accumulation has surged, with the number of addresses holding 100+ BTC reaching a record high of 19,130. This suggests sophisticated investors are accumulating Bitcoin amid volatility, despite $751 million in ETF outflows during August [1][5]. The divergence between retail and institutional sentiment highlights differing risk profiles and time horizons, with large holders appearing to view current levels as attractive entry points.

Looking ahead, the market is anticipating a potential "Uptober" rally, historically associated with October’s positive performance. Several altcoin ETFs on Solana, XRP, and others are expected to be approved by the SEC, which could drive further inflows and diversify the crypto market [6]. While Bitcoin’s dominance has fallen to 57.4% from a June high of 65%, the broader market has grown to a $1.65 trillion cap, indicating maturation and potential for altcoin activity [6].

The coming weeks will be crucial for Bitcoin, with traders closely watching support levels and macroeconomic developments. A successful defense of $100,000 could signal a shift in market sentiment, while a breakdown would likely extend the bearish trend into October. With the Fed’s decision imminent and institutional positioning evolving, the interplay between technical structure and macroeconomic factors will determine Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Source:

[1] title1 (https://cointelegraph.com/news/will-bitcoin-price-drop-in-september)

[2] title2 (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/01/red-september-bitcoin-risks-sliding-to-usd100k-after-8-monthly-drop)

[3] title3 (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bull-market-over-if-100k-is-lost-trader)

[4] title4 (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/29/bitcoin-bull-market-may-end-early-warns-key-indicator-but-flows-continue-to-lean-bullish)

[5] title5 (https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/how-low-can-bitcoin-go-in-september-2025-btc-price-predictions-analysis/)

[6] title6 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/aliceliu/2025/08/28/the-fed-rate-cut-gamble-markets-are-betting-big-but-altcoin-season-may-not-wait/)

[7] title7 (https://99bitcoins.com/news/presales/is-btc-usd-heading-for-a-september-crashout-smart-money-are-betting-on-fed-pump-heres-why/)