Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Safe-Haven Surge: A Hedge Against Government Uncertainty

Bitcoin surged to within 1% of its all-time high of $124,000 on October 3, 2025, trading at $123,874 as the U.S. government shutdown entered its third day, according to CNBC and CoinDesk. The cryptocurrency gained 2% on the day, driven by heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid political uncertainty. Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick attributed the rally to Bitcoin's role as a hedge against U.S. government risks, contrasting with the 2018-2019 shutdown, when the asset showed less sensitivity to similar events. The firm projected Bitcoin could breach $135,000 in the near term.

The shutdown disrupted key economic data releases, including the nonfarm payrolls report, creating a "blind spot" for the Federal Reserve. Analysts at 21Shares and Deutsche Bank noted that delayed data could force the Fed to cut interest rates more aggressively, potentially by 25 basis points in October. This "positive liquidity impulse" is expected to ease borrowing costs and fuel risk-on sentiment, with Bitcoin positioned as a beneficiary. Deribit-listed BTC options were highlighted as undervalued, with Amberdata's Greg Magadini advocating for long straddle strategies to capitalize on anticipated volatility.

Technical indicators reinforced the bullish momentum. Bitcoin's price broke above $118,534, a critical resistance level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing overbought territory. Coinedition analysts emphasized that holding above $118,534 was essential to validate the upward trend, with $129,000–$130,000 as the next target. On-chain data showed strong accumulation in the $116,000–$118,000 range, with over 196,600 BTC purchased during dips. OKX's analysis highlighted Bitcoin's dominance over altcoins, as the CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index fell to 36, signaling a "Bitcoin-led" market.

Market liquidity surged, with $430 million in inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs over two consecutive days, pushing the total market cap to $2.34 trillion. Open Interest on derivatives platforms hit a record $45.3 billion, while Binance's futures buy volume reached $1.8 billion in early October, underscoring institutional confidence. Coinbase's $92 premium over Binance further reflected robust U.S. demand, with $600 million in ETF inflows on October 2 alone.

Historical patterns added to the optimism. October, historically a strong month for Bitcoin (known as "Uptober"), saw an average gain of 20% over the past decade. The fourth quarter's average return of 78% also bolstered expectations for a sustained rally. However, analysts cautioned that short-term volatility remained a risk, with Bitcoin's RSI at 69 and the Stochastic RSI showing a bullish crossover. A breakdown below $120,000 could trigger a retest of $114,000–$115,000 support levels, though the broader trend remains intact.

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