Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Safe-Haven Status Fractures as Correlations Split Analysts

Bitcoin's role as a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty is under scrutiny as gold hits record highs, fueled by Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and geopolitical tensions. The cryptocurrency's correlation with gold has surged to 0.85, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, reinforcing the "digital gold" narrative despite recent price volatility. However, conflicting data from other analysts-such as a -0.53 30-day correlation reported by Glassnode-highlight a potential shift in Bitcoin's positioning as a risk-on asset, complicating its traditional safe-haven status .

Gold, trading near $4,100 per ounce, has climbed 57% in 2025 amid U.S.-China trade frictions, a prolonged government shutdown, and expectations of Fed easing. Bank of America now forecasts gold to reach $5,000 by 2026, citing inflation risks and central bank diversification away from U.S. Treasuries. The People's Bank of China has added 39.2 tonnes of gold to its reserves this year, while global central banks purchased 15 tonnes in August alone, signaling a structural shift in reserve management .

Bitcoin's price action, meanwhile, remains tied to gold's trajectory. Historical patterns suggest gold often precedes Bitcoin rallies, with analysts like Rob Jones noting a 60-day lag in Bitcoin's response to gold's movements. If this trend holds, Bitcoin could test $156,600 by mid-December. However, recent volatility-triggered by Trump's tariff threats and a flash crash to $104,000-has raised questions about Bitcoin's resilience as a long-term store of value. Bitwise's André Dragosch argues the sell-off was "mechanical" rather than fundamental, emphasizing Bitcoin's scarcity and macro liquidity as bullish factors .

The divergence between Bitcoin and gold underscores evolving investor behavior. While gold's inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar and equities remains intact, Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets has strengthened. This shift is attributed to Bitcoin's growing adoption in institutional portfolios and its programmable scarcity, which differentiates it from physical gold. Société Générale and Goldman Sachs have similarly raised gold price targets to $5,000, aligning with Bitcoin bulls who see the crypto market mirroring gold's trajectory as a hedge against fiat devaluation .

Investors are also navigating a surge in gold-backed ETFs and leveraged mining funds. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has returned 55% year-to-date, while junior gold miners ETFs (GDXJ) have gained 146%, reflecting divergent risk appetites. Bitcoin's ETF landscape remains quieter, but analysts like Anthony Pompliano argue that Bitcoin's utility as a store of value-rather than a medium of exchange-will drive institutional adoption as cash printing continues .

[1] Bitcoin Matches Gold as a Hedge Against Inflation Despite Recent ... (https://themarketperiodical.com/2025/10/15/bitcoin-matches-gold-as-a-hedge-against-inflation-despite-recent-drop/)

[2] Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Turns Negative: What It Means ... (https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/bitcoin-gold-correlation-turns-negative-what-it-means-for-btc-price-action/)

[5] BTC–Gold Correlation Hits New High as Both Assets Draw Investors (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-gold-correlation-hits-new-high-as-both-assets-surge)

[6] GLD, GDX, GDXJ ETFs Shine as Gold Breaks $4,000 Barrier (https://www.marketbeat.com/stock-ideas/after-gold-blast-soars-past-4-000-bofa-eyes-5-000-in-2026/)

[7] Gold rate hits record high: gold price forecast: Gold price tastes ... (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/gold-price-today-gold-price-tastes-record-high-again-amid-market-volatility-and-us-china-trade-tension-gold-surges-to-4132-bofa-lifts-2026-gold-price-prediction-to-5000/oz/articleshow/124552213.cms)

[9] Gold Price Forecast 2025–2026: XAU/USD Holds $4,022, Analysts ... (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-stabilizes-at-4022-usd-as-rate-cut-bets-and-15-tonne-cental-buying)

[12] Central Bank Gold Demand Surges in 2025 | Deriv Blog (https://deriv.com/blog/posts/central-bank-gold-demand-2025)