Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's cryptographic security faces quantum threat as experts debate 3-5 vs. 20-year timelines

Bitcoin’s cryptographic security model, long considered a cornerstone of its value proposition, is facing a looming challenge as cybersecurity experts warn of an imminent threat from quantum computing. David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, has highlighted the potential vulnerability of Bitcoin’s reliance on elliptic-curve cryptography (ECDSA), which could be compromised by quantum algorithms like Shor’s algorithm. According to Carvalho, this breakthrough could arrive within three to five years as quantum hardware advances, fundamentally altering the risk landscape for digital assets.

The stakes are significant. Approximately 30% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply—stored in wallets that have exposed public keys—could become susceptible to theft in a post-quantum era. Carvalho refers to this scenario as “Q-Day,” a hypothetical but critical moment when quantum computing renders current encryption obsolete. He emphasizes that major tech firms like Google, Microsoft, and IBM are actively pursuing quantum supremacy, with IBM targeting a fault-tolerant quantum system by 2029. This accelerated timeline, he argues, underscores the urgency for proactive measures.

Carvalho’s warnings contrast with the more measured perspective of Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and an early Bitcoin pioneer. While Back acknowledges the long-term risk posed by quantum computing, he estimates the threat could remain theoretical for at least two decades. He also notes that legacy wallets—potentially including those linked to Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto—might eventually require updates but not necessarily in the immediate future. This divergence in timelines reflects broader debates within the industry about how soon quantum capabilities will outpace current cryptographic defenses.

The core issue lies in Bitcoin’s transaction verification process. ECDSA, which underpins Bitcoin’s ownership proof, is vulnerable to reverse-engineering by sufficiently advanced quantum computers. Shor’s algorithm, capable of factoring large numbers exponentially faster than classical systems, could exploit this weakness to derive private keys from public addresses. Such a breach would enable malicious actors to manipulate transactions, double-spend coins, or steal funds without detection—a scenario that could erode trust in the cryptocurrency’s security framework.

Industry responses to this threat vary. While some experts advocate for immediate action—such as migrating assets to quantum-secure wallets and updating infrastructure—others caution against overreacting. Implementing quantum-resistant algorithms, like lattice-based cryptography, would require consensus across a decentralized network, a process that could take years. Skeptics argue that the infrastructure needed for a quantum attack remains non-existent and that the threat is still hypothetical. Nevertheless, the growing interest in quantum research, driven by both public and private investments, has intensified concerns about a potential race between encryption advancements and quantum capabilities.

Regulatory and institutional players are also being urged to prepare for potential cryptographic shifts. As central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and other blockchain-based systems gain traction, experts stress the importance of integrating quantum-resistant protocols into future frameworks. The lack of immediate solutions highlights the challenge of balancing innovation with security in an evolving technological landscape. For now, the timeline of the threat—whether three years or three decades—remains uncertain. However, the consensus among many experts is that the window to act is narrowing, and proactive planning is essential to safeguarding digital assets in an era of unprecedented technological change.