Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's RSI Signals Cyclical Reset as Market Waits for Fed's Decisive Move

Bitcoin's velocity relative strength index (RSI) has reached a historically significant threshold, flashing a rare bear market bottom signal as the cryptocurrency's price nears $87,000. Analysts are highlighting the indicator's plunge to levels observed only during major market troughs, suggesting the asset may be entering a critical cyclical reset. The velocity RSI, which factors in momentum shifts, has dipped below 10/100-a level associated with extreme oversold conditions and [historically linked to market bottoms in 2018, 2022, and now 2025](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-more-reliable-rsi-variant-bear-market-bottom-zone-87k). On-Chain Mind, a prominent crypto analyst, noted on X that [the metric's current reading is the lowest since the last three bear market lows](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-more-reliable-rsi-variant-bear-market-bottom-zone-87k), emphasizing its reliability as a momentum exhaustion signal.

The technical case for a potential bottom is further bolstered by Bitcoin's long/short ratio, which has entered uncharted territory. Joao Wedson of Alphractal observed that [the ratio-typically a key predictor of price bottoms-has deviated from historical patterns](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-more-reliable-rsi-variant-bear-market-bottom-zone-87k), with Bitcoin maintaining elevated long positions for an unusually prolonged period despite ongoing price declines. This anomaly, Wedson warned, could incentivize large players to exploit retail longs by driving prices lower, compounding short-term risks for bulls. Meanwhile, the altcoin market is showing early signs of capital rotation, with [the ALT/BTC ratio rising above 0.25](https://beincrypto.com/fed-qt-end-may-trigger-altcoin-rally/), a level historically correlated with altcoin rallies following Fed policy shifts.

The broader market context remains bleak, however. Bitcoin's recent 17% drop in November-the largest monthly selloff in crypto history-erased over $1 trillion in market value, [pushing the asset below its 50-week moving average](https://www.youhodler.com/blog/bitcoin-suffers-sharpest-crash-in-years) and into bearish territory. ETF outflows for the month totaled $3.48 billion, reflecting institutional caution amid macroeconomic uncertainty. On-chain data also tells a bearish story: whales are actively moving BTC to exchanges, and long-term holders continue to distribute their holdings, [signaling persistent supply pressure](https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-price-outlook-december-2025/).

Despite these headwinds, some analysts see cautious optimism. Shawn Young of MEXC highlighted that a resurgence in ETF inflows-specifically exceeding $200–300 million daily-could signal institutional re-entry and the start of a recovery phase. Similarly, Hunter Rogers of TeraHash noted that December might see a "quiet" consolidation phase, with a slow upward trend emerging if liquidity stabilizes [according to market analysis](https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-price-outlook-december-2025/). The velocity RSI's current positioning, coupled with the ALT/BTC ratio's behavior, suggests that while the downside risk remains, the market could be nearing a inflection point.

For now, traders are closely watching $80,400 as a critical support level, with a break below this threshold potentially opening the door to new lows. Conversely, a sustained rebound above $97,100 could invalidate the bear flag pattern and rekindle bullish momentum. Until then, the cryptocurrency market remains at a crossroads, [with macroeconomic developments likely to play a decisive role](https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-price-outlook-december-2025/) in shaping Bitcoin's trajectory.