Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin RSI Crosses Bearish Signal Amid Potential 20% Correction Risk

Bitcoin’s technical indicators have triggered growing concerns among market observers, as the cryptocurrency’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dropped below its 14-period simple moving average (SMA). This bearish signal, historically linked to significant price corrections, has occurred in the past and could suggest a potential 20% decline in the coming weeks. Market analyst Ali (@ali_charts) has highlighted this pattern, indicating that if history repeats, Bitcoin could drop to approximately $95,000, representing a fall of nearly $24,716 from the current level around $113,586 [1].

The RSI crossover happened during the week of July 28, 2025, a move often interpreted as a sign of weakening momentum and increasing bearish pressure. In both April and December 2024, similar crossovers preceded sharp corrections. The April 2024 drop saw Bitcoin fall 27.93%, or about $28,024, while the December 2024 decline amounted to 24.76%, or $24,893. These events underscore the signal's historical significance, and the current RSI setup aligns closely with past patterns [1].

The potential correction of 20.65% would bring Bitcoin to the $95,000 level, a critical psychological and technical support. Traders are closely monitoring whether the weekly candle will close below the SMA again, which could confirm the bearish outlook. Conversely, if Bitcoin reclaims momentum and moves above $115,000, the signal might lose strength, redirecting attention to higher resistance levels like $120,000 [1].

Although the RSI crossover is a bearish indicator, it is not a definitive prediction. Market sentiment and volume data remain neutral, with no signs of panic selling. Analysts remain divided on the outcome, with some suggesting that Bitcoin could break out of its current range and test the 50-day EMA at around $113,000–$114,000, potentially leading to a rebound toward $130,000. However, this scenario depends on Bitcoin maintaining above key support levels [1].

The current price action reflects a tight trading range, with resistance near $114,500–$115,000 and support at $112,000–$112,500. While the price recently bounced from the support zone, it remains below a descending trendline, indicating weak bullish momentum. The RSI stands at a neutral 47, suggesting limited buying pressure. A breakout above $115,000 could trigger a rally toward $118,000–$120,000, while a breakdown below $112,000 could lead to further losses toward $110,000 or $108,000 [1].

With Bitcoin hovering near a multi-year trendline after reaching an all-time high of $123,000, the $114,000 level has become a crucial decision point. Some analysts view this as a potential setup for a parabolic move toward $150,000–$180,000, drawing parallels to the 2017 bull run. Others, however, caution that the RSI signal remains a key bearish concern, with price levels around $112,600 and $115,000 under close watch [4].

The market is at a sensitive juncture, with conflicting signals from different technical indicators. While the RSI suggests a potential 20% pullback, other patterns hint at a possible continuation of the bullish trend. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin adheres to historical precedent or breaks the pattern, setting the stage for either a significant correction or a renewed rally. Investors and traders are advised to remain cautious, as volatility and uncertainty remain high in the current market environment [1].

Source: [1] https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/08/06/bitcoin-could-drop-to-95k-as-rsi-signals-repeating-pattern/

[4] https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1013350-20250805