Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Risk-Off Signal hits 97-day streak as falling wedge tightens at $115,086-$118,102

Bitcoin’s prolonged risk-off sentiment continues to shape market dynamics as the Risk-Off Signal, developed by Bitcoin Vector in collaboration with Glassnode and Swissblock, reaches its second-longest streak in three years. The metric now stands at 97 consecutive days, trailing only the 107-day period recorded in November 2024. This indicator, which blends on-chain data with price structure models, highlights early-stage capital outflows from risk assets, often preceding major market drawdowns. The sustained signal reflects heightened caution among investors, with liquidity tightening across the crypto market and altcoin rotations stalling [1].

The Risk-Off Signal’s methodology focuses on identifying phases where market participants retreat to safer assets, a trend that has persisted since mid-2023. Bitcoin Vector emphasizes that adhering to this signal’s guidance could have yielded strong returns for traders over the past year. The current streak suggests a structural shift in market behavior, as prolonged risk aversion compresses liquidity and weakens cross-asset correlations typically driven by Bitcoin’s dominance. Analysts note that such extended risk-off periods often precede broader corrections, with the 2024 episode serving as a recent example of how prolonged caution can lead to sharp sell-offs [1].

Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action further underscores the market’s fragile state. The asset is currently ensnared in a tightening falling wedge pattern, with support at $115,086 and resistance at $118,102. This formation, characterized by converging price boundaries, signals reduced liquidity and heightened volatility risk. Traders are closely watching for a decisive breakout, as failure to breach these levels could extend the risk-off environment. Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs since mid-July have accelerated this trend, compounding the pressure on institutional demand and fresh capital inflows. The wedge’s narrowing structure indicates concentrated liquidity within a shrinking range, making any directional move more impactful [1].

The interplay between the Risk-Off Signal and technical patterns highlights a broader tug-of-war in crypto markets. A sustained risk-off environment not only depresses Bitcoin’s performance but also dampens altcoin activity, as cross-chain capital flows become more defensive. This dynamic is already evident in reduced trading volumes and stagnant altcoin rotations, reinforcing the signal’s role as a leading indicator. For now, the market remains in a holding pattern, with uncertainty over macroeconomic catalysts—such as consumer spending trends—leaving traders reliant on technical thresholds for directional clues [3].

Market participants are increasingly adopting defensive strategies as liquidity constraints persist. Short-term traders are reducing exposure to volatile assets, while long-term holders await a clearer trend reversal. The absence of major institutional buying activity and the continued dominance of the Risk-Off Signal suggest that the market may require more time to rebalance. Analysts caution that without a surge in volume or a catalyst for risk-on sentiment, the current consolidation could deepen, prolonging the cautious stance that has defined Bitcoin’s recent trajectory [2].

The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the market transitions from risk-off to risk-on. A breakout above $118,102 could rekindle bullish momentum, but it would require robust volume to validate the shift. Conversely, a breakdown below $115,086 might accelerate bearish pressure, potentially triggering broader selloffs across the crypto ecosystem. As the Risk-Off Signal extends, its relevance as a behavioral indicator remains underscored by the alignment of on-chain data and price structures, offering a rare glimpse into the evolving psychology of crypto investors [1].

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[1] [Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Trapped in Tightening Falling ...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-trapped-tightening-falling-wedge-118-102-resistance-holds-1-1-rebound-2507/)

[2] [Bitcoin's New Clock: How Wall Street Killed The Old Cycle ...](https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-989899-20250727)

[3] [Daily Crypto Insights: Macro Swings, Altcoin Unlocks & ...](https://medium.com/@powertrade_options/daily-crypto-insights-macro-swings-altcoin-unlocks-options-alpha-147a30b861a2)