Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Rises on Technical Bounce Amid U.S. ETF Outflows and Tax-Driven Selling

Bitcoin returned to $90,000 in early trading on Monday, driven by technical factors but without a clear new catalyst emerging in the market. The move followed a period of consolidation and seasonal outflows from U.S. spot ETFs, as institutions engaged in year-end tax strategies. Analysts remain cautious, noting that the absence of a significant macroeconomic or regulatory development suggests the rebound is more a function of market structure than fundamental demand.

The week saw heavy selling pressure from institutional investors, with tax-loss harvesting and a large options expiry contributing to a $825 million outflow from Bitcoin ETFs. This trend, while temporary according to many observers, reflects a broader de-risking ahead of the new year. Meanwhile, Asian markets have emerged as a net buyer of Bitcoin, signaling a potential geographic shift in institutional flows.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market, despite the recent drawdown, has enjoyed a historic year with net inflows exceeding $23 billion.

However, year-end volatility and liquidity constraints have magnified the impact of even modest selling orders. The market is now waiting for a more stable period to assess whether this outflow is a temporary pause or a sign of deeper caution in institutional positioning.

How Markets Reacted

Bitcoin ETFs, particularly BlackRock's IBIT and Grayscale's GBTC, saw the largest outflows as investors reduced exposure ahead of year-end. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price gap between the U.S. and global exchanges, turned negative, suggesting a concentration of selling pressure in American markets . Analysts argue that this trend aligns with seasonal patterns seen in traditional assets, where tax strategies and risk management dominate the final weeks of the year .

The impact was amplified by the Bitcoin quarterly options expiry, which added to institutional de-risking. Alek Carter, a prominent analyst, noted on X that most of the selling could be attributed to tax-loss harvesting, which is expected to ease within a week. He also highlighted that the sell-off was temporary and that institutions are likely to return to buying once the tax-driven pressure subsides according to a recent analysis.

What Analysts Are Watching

While the current outflows are seen as a reset rather than a fundamental shift, analysts are closely monitoring the broader market dynamics. The U.S. is now the largest seller of Bitcoin, with Asian markets stepping in as primary buyers. Ted Pillows observed on X that this inversion of capital flow is a significant shift compared to historical trends in crypto markets . The movement may reflect differences in risk appetite and tax strategies between Western and Asian investors.

Institutional investors are also watching the performance of Bitcoin in early 2026. With BlackRock and other firms projecting stronger flows next year, the focus is on whether regulatory clarity and product innovation will reinvigorate demand. Galaxy Digital and other research firms suggest that crypto ETFs will see even higher inflows as wirehouses relax advisor restrictions and introduce more diverse products . For now, the market is in a wait-and-see mode, with many investors adopting a defensive stance ahead of a new fiscal year.

Risks to the Outlook

A key concern for investors is the potential for Bitcoin to remain range-bound in the near term. The $90,000 level has been a psychological benchmark, but the lack of a new catalyst means that the asset may struggle to break through in the short term. CryptoQuant analyst @Darkfost_Coc noted that the market consensus has turned bearish, based on sentiment metrics that combine on-chain data and media coverage. He argues that such consensus often precedes a market reversal, suggesting that patience is still required in a bearish environment.

Meanwhile, the U.S. ETF outflows have raised questions about the sustainability of institutional demand for Bitcoin. While the year's overall inflows remain strong, the recent exodus underscores the importance of macroeconomic factors such as real interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional assets, particularly gold and the Nasdaq, has also weakened, indicating that it is increasingly viewed as a standalone asset class . This divergence could create new challenges for investors who rely on traditional market signals to manage their portfolios.

What This Means for Investors

Investors must navigate a landscape where seasonal tax strategies and market structure are playing a dominant role. The ability to sell and repurchase Bitcoin without triggering IRS wash-sale rules has concentrated activity into the final trading days of the year, according to financial advisors . This dynamic may lead to sharp price swings as investors seek to optimize their tax positions.

For those holding Bitcoin, the current environment offers opportunities for strategic rebalancing. With institutional investors expected to return to the market in early 2026, the focus will shift to whether Bitcoin can maintain its momentum against a backdrop of regulatory and macroeconomic uncertainty. In the short term, however, patience and caution are likely to remain key themes as the market digests the year-end reset.