Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Rises Despite Record ETF Outflows as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim

Bitcoin Rebounds Amid Rising December Fed Rate Cut Odds

Bitcoin (BTC) prices have shown signs of recovery as markets reprice expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, despite ongoing outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), recorded $523 million in outflows on a single day—the largest since their January 2024 launch—bringing November's total outflows to a record $2.96 billion. This has pushed the products toward their worst monthly performance, with BlackRock alone accounting for $2.1 billion of the redemptions.

The redemptions contrast with historical trends, as November typically averages a 41.22% price rally. However, the Federal Reserve's shifting monetary policy outlook has dampened sentiment. Markets are now pricing in a 46% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the central bank's December 10 meeting, down sharply from 93.7% a month ago. This decline follows the cancellation of the October jobs report and a delayed release of November data, complicating the Fed's ability to assess labor market conditions.

Technical indicators have also raised concerns. Bitcoin recently printed its fourth "death cross", a bearish pattern where short-term momentum falls below long-term trends. While historically associated with market bottoms, the signal coincides with falling liquidity and unresolved macroeconomic risks. "The signal comes at a moment when liquidity is only starting to stabilize," said Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang.

Meanwhile, traders are positioning for further downside. Smart money traders on Hyperliquid added $5.7 million in short positions in the past 24 hours, with cumulative short exposure reaching $275 million. This aligns with broader market caution, as two major crypto market makers face financial deficits, according to Bitmine Immersion's chairman, Tom Lee.

The ETF outflows highlight broader challenges in the crypto market, including regulatory uncertainty and security risks according to an industry report. Institutional adoption, while growing, remains constrained by fragmented global regulations and concerns over market volatility. "The absence of uniform regulation hinders innovation," noted an industry report.