Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Rises Without Overheating: On-Chain Metrics Signal Room for Growth

Bitcoin's post-halving price surge has not yet reached overbought territory, according to on-chain metrics and market analysis. As of September 4, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $110,723.60, with a market capitalization of $2.2 trillion, reflecting a 18.51% year-over-year increaseBitcoin Price History (2009 to 2025) – Data & Analysis^[1]. Despite its robust rally, key indicators such as the MVRV Z-Score suggest the asset remains far from extreme overvaluation. The MVRV Z-Score, which measures the deviation of Bitcoin's market value from its realized value, currently stands at 1.43MVRV Z-Score | BM Pro^[2]. Historically, this level aligns with local market bottoms rather than tops, indicating room for further upward movement before entering overbought conditions. Previous cycles saw the Z-Score peak above 7, with current levels comparable to May 2017, when Bitcoin traded at a fraction of its current value.

The April 2024 halving event, which reduced daily Bitcoin issuance to 900 BTC, has intensified supply-side dynamics. Post-halving data reveals that 74% of the circulating supply is illiquid (not moved in ≥2 years), while 75% of coins remain dormant for over six months. This hoarding behavior tightens the float, amplifying upward pressure on price. Miner activity further supports the bullish narrative: despite declining profitability, miner outflows to exchanges remain minimal, and the Miner-to-Exchange Flow Ratio is at historically low levelsMVRV Z-Score | BM Pro^[2]. These trends suggest miners are retaining BTC, signaling long-term confidence in the asset's trajectory.

Institutional demand and ETF inflows are also reshaping the landscape. Exchange reserves have contracted significantly, with Binance's holdings dropping from 595,000 BTC to 544,500 BTC between April and May 2025. This reduction in liquidity, coupled with increased accumulation by long-term holders, points to a tightening market supply. Analysts note that large whale balances and ETF allocations are driving demand, with the latter accounting for 41% of projected 2025 price returnsBitcoin Price Prediction 2025: What On-Chain Metrics …^[5]. The Pi Cycle Oscillator, which tracks moving averages to identify market peaks, has begun trending upward, reinforcing the likelihood of sustained bullish momentum.

Historical patterns and valuation models add further context. The MVRV Z-Score's current trajectory mirrors pre-2017 and 2021 bull market phases, with on-chain activity-including 735,000 active addresses and daily transactions of 390,000-supporting a healthy, usage-driven valuation. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, now at 1.51, confirms that Bitcoin's price is backed by real economic activity rather than speculative mania. Meanwhile, the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model projects a price range of $248,000 to $369,000 by year-end, though its accuracy post-2021 remains debated.

Macro factors also favor Bitcoin's trajectory. Despite a strengthening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), Bitcoin has maintained upward momentum, historically inversely correlated with the DXY. Global M2 money supply contractions in 2024 are expected to reverse in 2025, creating a more favorable monetary environment. However, risks persist, including equity market volatility and regulatory shifts, which could introduce short-term corrections.

Experts project a late-2025 peak based on historical cycles and on-chain data. The 2024 halving typically precedes exponential price growth 6–12 months later, with potential targets between $140,000 and $210,000. While some forecasts, such as Chamath Palihapitiya's $497,000 target2025 Unbiased and Data-Driven Bitcoin Outlook | BM Pro^[6], hinge on aggressive adoption and institutional flows, most models converge on a $150,000–$200,000 range by year-end. These projections assume continued supply-side constraints, ETF inflows, and macroeconomic stability.

Bitcoin's trajectory in 2025 remains data-driven, with on-chain metrics, institutional demand, and macroeconomic trends aligning for sustained growth. While caution is warranted against overenthusiasm, the current market setup suggests the asset is far from overbought and positioned for a strong finish to the year.