Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Rises on Cooler CPI, Eyes Rate-Cut Hope and BOJ Decision

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown signs of recovery, nearing the $90,000 level after unexpectedly favorable U.S. inflation data. The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.7% year-over-year, below the expected 3.1%, signaling a cooling inflationary environment according to reports. This development has sparked renewed optimism across risk assets, including Bitcoin, as the market re-evaluates the potential for interest rate cuts in early 2026 according to analysis.

Despite the positive news, Bitcoin's rally has appeared impulsive and short-lived. Traders have noted that the price movement is liquidity-driven, with limited conviction in the broader market. Short-term pullbacks remain a possibility as positioning is reassessed. On-chain metrics indicate a period of stabilization rather than a new bullish trend, with unrealized losses flattening and selling activity on major exchanges remaining reactive.

The final macroeconomic event of the year, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision on December 19, could influence Bitcoin's next move. Recent price action suggests much of the uncertainty around the BOJ's policy shift is already priced in, potentially removing a key hurdle for near-term gains. If the BOJ announces a non-disruptive outcome, Bitcoin may find additional support as market uncertainty wanes.

Why the Standoff Happened

Bitcoin's recent performance has been influenced by a mix of macroeconomic signals and market behavior. The lower-than-expected CPI print generated a positive response from the crypto market, with fresh positioning seen in the form of rising open interest rather than short covering. However, the bounce off the $90,000 level has not been enough to confirm a sustained bullish trend. Traders have pointed to the need for Bitcoin to close above key technical levels—particularly the monthly volume-weighted average price (VWAP)—to signal stronger buyer conviction according to market analysis.

On-chain data further supports the view that Bitcoin is in a stabilization phase. The net-unrealized profit/loss metric has stopped deepening, while the spent-output profit ratio (SOPR) remains close to breakeven, suggesting a lack of panic selling. Deposit activity on major exchanges also spikes only during brief dips in price, reinforcing the idea that selling pressure is not structural.

How Markets Reacted

The broader financial markets have responded to the U.S. inflation data with optimism. Stocks and risk assets have rallied, reflecting expectations of easier monetary policy ahead. The S&P 500 is projected to rise 11% in 2026, fueled by strong corporate earnings and increased AI-related investments. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in early 2026 to support the cooling labor market, which could further boost risk appetite according to market analysis.

Bitcoin, however, has not fully participated in the broader bullish trend. The crypto market has been grappling with high volatility and liquidity constraints, with price action often mimicking patterns seen in early 2025. Analysts suggest that while institutional demand has shown early signs of recovery—supported by strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs—the market remains range-bound until fresh liquidity absorbs overhead supply.

Risks to the Outlook

Despite the favorable macroeconomic backdrop, several risks remain. The Federal Reserve's easing cycle is not without its uncertainties, as inflation remains above its 2% target. A potential shift in monetary policy or signs of reacceleration could dampen expectations for rate cuts, weighing on Bitcoin and other risk assets. Additionally, on-chain metrics such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) have flattened, indicating a cautious stance among investors rather than renewed speculative fervor according to blockchain analysis.

Technical resistance remains a key factor to watch. Bitcoin must clear $90,000 and reclaim a position above the monthly VWAP to demonstrate stronger buyer conviction. A daily close above this threshold would be a pivotal development, but immediate sell-side liquidity exists between $90,500 and $92,000, which could limit upside momentum. Meanwhile, any rejection of these levels and a rise in short positioning could push Bitcoin back toward swing lows at $83,800.

What This Means for Investors

Investors remain cautious as Bitcoin struggles to break free from its sideways range. While the macroeconomic data points to a more favorable environment for risk assets, the crypto market is still navigating high volatility and liquidity constraints. ETF inflows and institutional demand are early positives, but further confirmation of a bullish trend will depend on Bitcoin's ability to sustain a move above key technical thresholds.

Market participants are advised to monitor the December 19 BOJ interest rate decision, as well as any further shifts in Federal Reserve policy. The upcoming months could bring greater clarity as these events play out, potentially reshaping the landscape for Bitcoin and other digital assets. For now, the market is in a holding pattern, with both opportunities and risks on the horizon.