Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Rises Toward $92,640 as Fed Weighs Rate Cut Amid Crypto Volatility

Bitcoin edged higher toward $92,640 on Monday as the Federal Reserve prepared to announce its final interest-rate decision of 2025. The cryptocurrency had fallen sharply from $94,000 to $88,000 within hours earlier in the week, triggering $500 million in forced liquidations and highlighting the fragility of leveraged positions. The market remained closely watching the Fed's policy direction, with futures pricing in an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut.

The Fed's decision came amid a slowing labor market and weak government data due to a partial shutdown. Institutional analysts like Bank of America and Morgan Stanley had already adjusted their forecasts, anticipating a dovish outcome. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to rally in the 30–60 days following a Fed easing pivot, and investors are now looking for similar patterns ahead of a potential rate cut.

At press time, Bitcoin traded near $92,640 with $84 billion in 24-hour volume. Technical indicators pointed to a critical pivot at $93,000–$95,000, where institutional traders had positioned liquidity pockets. A move above $95,000 could open the door to targets at $99,000 and beyond, while a breakdown below $88,000 could see the price slide toward $85,000.

Why the Standoff Happened

The Fed's December meeting came at a pivotal moment for the crypto market, which had already seen sharp intraday reversals and widespread liquidations. Over 140,000 traders were liquidated globally in the past 24 hours, underscoring the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic volatility. The total crypto market cap had also declined by $80 billion to $3.1 trillion, while Bitcoin's dominance climbed to 54.6% as capital rotated into defensive positions.

Bitcoin's recent volatility was partly driven by thin liquidity and leveraged trading activity. After an October event that saw over $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated, order books remained fragile, limiting aggressive market-making and amplifying price swings. With the Fed set to end quantitative tightening on December 1, market participants are closely watching for signals that could trigger a broader risk-on environment.

What Analysts Are Watching

The Fed's decision and Chair Jerome Powell's comments will be closely scrutinized for clues about 2026 monetary policy. A dovish outcome could bolster investor sentiment, with historical data showing Bitcoin climbing 42% in six weeks after a 2024 rate pivot. Analysts like Ryan McMillin of Merkle Tree Capital noted that the rate cut could serve as the catalyst for a market rally, particularly if quantitative tightening ends alongside the easing.

Conversely, any hawkish remarks from Powell could cap Bitcoin's gains. The market has already priced in a 92% chance of a rate cut, but the central bank's communication around inflation and labor market conditions will determine whether the move is seen as temporary or part of a broader accommodative cycle. Investors are also keeping an eye on Kevin Hassett, the National Economic Council Director and potential successor to Powell, as his dovish stance could influence 2026 policy expectations.

Risks to the Outlook

While the Fed's decision remains the key focal point, Bitcoin also faces structural challenges, including ETF inflow uncertainty and persistent investor caution. Weekly net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have turned negative since early December, with the total assets under management standing at $117.67 billion or 6.55% of the total supply. As the price nears the ETF breakeven level of around $83,000, any further decline could trigger additional selling pressure unless macroeconomic conditions align with bullish expectations.

The altcoin market remains in a subdued state, with the Altcoin Season Index at 18/100, indicating a clear dominance of Bitcoin. Privacy-focused tokens like Zcash have seen occasional outperformance, but the broader market remains defensive, with most altcoins failing to outperform Bitcoin. This environment suggests that until the macro outlook stabilizes, capital will remain concentrated in larger, more liquid assets.

For now, the crypto market is bracing for a pivotal few days. With the Fed expected to cut rates and end quantitative tightening, the stage is set for potential short-term gains. However, sustained momentum will depend on a broader alignment of macroeconomic indicators, investor sentiment, and regulatory clarity.