Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Retreats to $112,000 as Macroeconomic Pressures and Technical Levels Intensify Volatility Risks

Bitcoin's price movement has entered a period of consolidation as market participants weigh the influence of macroeconomic pressures and technical patterns. After reaching an all-time high of $123,000 in July 2025, the cryptocurrency retreated to approximately $112,000 following a six-day downward trend, raising concerns over its near-term direction [1]. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, a prominent figure in the crypto space, has expressed a bearish outlook, forecasting that Bitcoin could test the $100,000 level as economic fundamentals weaken, including poor credit growth and impending tariff measures [1]. His concerns are compounded by portfolio actions, as Hayes recently converted over $13 million in crypto assets into stablecoins in a defensive move [2].

Hayes cited the weak U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, which reported only 73,000 new jobs added in July, well below the 110,000 forecast, as an early indicator of slowing economic momentum. This, combined with stagnant credit expansion in key economies and expected U.S. tariff policies, could trigger a broader correction in risk assets, including Bitcoin [1]. “No major econ is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal GDP,” Hayes noted on X, further reinforcing his bearish stance [1].

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s current price at $112,000 aligns with key support levels such as the 50-day exponential moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement [2]. While a modest 0.5% rebound occurred over the weekend, analysts warn that a breakdown below $100,000 could accelerate the decline, with potential targets at $104,000 and $75,000 [2]. These levels are critical for both institutional and retail buyers, many of whom view them as strategic entry points.

However, not all market participants share this pessimism. The approval of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF has coincided with a noticeable reduction in Bitcoin’s volatility, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas [2]. He argues that the post-ETF environment has brought “much less volatility and no vomit-inducing drawdowns,” which suggests stronger institutional support for the asset [2]. This sentiment is echoed by some bullish forecasts, including those from Standard Chartered, which projects a price of $200,000 for 2025, and Changelly, which anticipates an average price of $109,046 [1].

Further, veteran trader Peter Brandt has identified a potential cycle top forming between $125,000 and $150,000 by Q3 2025, highlighting the ongoing debate over Bitcoin’s trajectory [1]. Despite the differing viewpoints, there is a shared emphasis on the need for risk management as volatility remains elevated. Hayes’ shift to stablecoins is indicative of a broader trend among crypto investors who are increasingly adjusting their strategies in response to macroeconomic signals.

Looking forward, Bitcoin’s price path will likely remain shaped by the interplay between macroeconomic headwinds and the structural changes brought by institutional adoption. While a test of the $100,000 level appears possible in the near term, historical patterns suggest that such corrections are not uncommon for the asset. Analysts are closely monitoring key technical levels and how market participants react once the $100,000 zone is reached.

Source:

[1] How Low Can Bitcoin Go? Arthur Hayes' BTC Price Warning (url: https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1010394-20250804)