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Bitcoin’s recent price action has sparked renewed debate over the potential trajectory of the current bull market, with on-chain data revealing mixed signals from long-term holders. After briefly surpassing $124,000, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has retreated to around $115,424, down nearly 10% from its peak. This pullback has drawn attention to how seasoned investors are responding to the rally, particularly through the lens of realized profit and loss (RPL) metrics and Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) data [1].
CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA has closely tracked the RPL trend, a historical indicator of market cycle turning points. The data shows that during the 2017 bull run, sharp spikes in long-term holder (LTH) profit realization coincided with the market peak. In contrast, the 2018–2019 bear market saw a marked decline in realized profits and a surge in losses as prices bottomed. A similar pattern emerged in 2021, albeit with more gradual profit-taking, and again in 2022–2023, when panic selling among LTHs pushed
into the $15,000–$20,000 range [1].Currently, while some profit-taking is evident, the volume remains moderate compared to historical peaks. PelinayPA notes that this measured approach suggests Bitcoin may still be in the late stages of its bull cycle, with the potential for further upside if selling pressure remains contained. However, a significant acceleration in
selling could signal the next market top [1].The 30-day CDD metric, often used to gauge the movement of long-held coins, peaked at nearly 1.35 million on July 23 but has since declined, indicating a slowdown in selling activity from older wallets. Analyst Darkfost interprets this as a positive sign, suggesting that long-term holders are either satisfied with current price levels or have become more cautious [1].
Despite the easing of selling pressure, Bitcoin remains below the key $120,000 level, a threshold many traders view as essential for confirming the bull trend. The inability to maintain this level has bolstered bearish sentiment, while the lack of a breakdown below $115,000 points to strong underlying demand. Technical indicators show the price consolidating near all-time highs, with the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages providing immediate support. A clean move above $123,000 could reinvigorate the rally, while a drop below $115,000 would raise concerns about the cycle’s sustainability [1].
Whale activity and other on-chain metrics further complicate the picture, revealing a market in transition where accumulation and distribution forces are in balance. As Bitcoin continues to absorb profit-taking from long-term holders, the next few trading sessions will be critical in determining whether the bull run can resume or if a more extended consolidation phase is on the horizon [1].
Source:
[1] Bitcoin 30-Day CDD Down: Market Absorbs LTH Selling Without Breaking Support
https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-30-day-cdd-down-market-absorbs-lth-selling-without-breaking-support/

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