Bitcoin News Today: As Bitcoin Retests Golden Cross, Macro Tailwinds Clash with Volatility Risks

Bitcoin retests the golden cross, a technical indicator historically associated with significant price rallies, as analysts debate its potential to trigger a new bull run. The 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average-a bullish signal-has reappeared on Bitcoin's charts, with past instances in 2017 and 2020 preceding gains of 2,200% and 1,190%, respectively Cointelegraph^[1]. Current price action near $110,000 has drawn attention from traders and institutions, with some analysts suggesting a sustained breakout could reignite parabolic momentum Blockchain.news^[2].

The golden cross's relevance is amplified by broader macroeconomic factors. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT, have attracted record inflows, with assets under management nearing $100 billion. This structural demand, coupled with weakening real yields and a softer U.S. dollar, has fueled a "debasement trade" where Bitcoin and gold are seen as hedges against currency devaluation Forbes Digital Assets^[3]. However, volatility remains a concern, with implied volatilities across key expiries surging to 30-day highs as markets anticipate a potential Federal Reserve rate cut The Coin Republic^[4].

Technical analysis highlights critical thresholds. A sustained close above $110,000 could validate the golden cross's bullish case, while a breakdown risks triggering a cascade of liquidations and a retreat toward $100,000 CoinOTAG^[5]. On-chain data shows reduced short positions near current levels, suggesting limited immediate downside risk. Meanwhile, institutional adoption, including Luxembourg's Intergenerational Sovereign Wealth Fund allocating 1% of its portfolio to Bitcoin ETFs, underscores growing legitimacy as a diversified asset class The Crypto Basic^[6].

Scenario analysis from market observers outlines three potential paths for Bitcoin through year-end 2025. A bull case, supported by continued ETF inflows and weak real yields, projects a target range of $135,000–$200,000. A base case anticipates consolidation between $95,000–$140,000, while a bear case-triggered by rising real yields or regulatory shocks-could see a correction to $70,000–$95,000 EBC^[7].

Critically, Bitcoin's performance remains contingent on macroeconomic and regulatory developments. The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, global geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade dynamics), and the stability of crypto exchanges all carry the potential to disrupt momentum Yahoo Finance^[8]. Analysts caution that while the golden cross and ETF-driven inflows create a favorable backdrop, historical volatility and liquidity risks necessitate caution.