Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Resilience Defies Speculative Collapse as IBCI and On-Chain Metrics Signal Moderate Expansion

Bitcoin’s recent price decline has triggered speculation about market capitulation, but a closer examination of on-chain and market cycle data reveals a more nuanced narrative. Analysts highlight three key factors indicating the asset remains resilient amid short-term volatility. The first, a lack of systemic leverage and overheating, underscores the correction’s orderly nature. The second, a strategic consolidation within a broader bullish trend, reinforces structural strength. Third, the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) and miner behavior suggest the market is in a moderate expansion phase rather than a speculative collapse.

Despite Bitcoin’s pullback to approximately $115,500, critical metrics challenge the notion of panic-driven selling. Market risk models currently assign a zero risk index to Bitcoin, indicating participants are far from euphoric or panicked states typically observed at market peaks [1]. The relative strength index (RSI) has cooled to 66, alleviating overbought pressure and eliminating signs of irrational exuberance. Additionally, neutral funding rates and stable open interest volumes point to a correction driven by strategic rebalancing rather than capitulation. These conditions historically precede accumulation phases, suggesting the dip could offer entry points for long-term buyers.

The correction itself aligns with Bitcoin’s larger ascending trend. The asset remains above its 50-day moving average and has not breached key support levels, maintaining the higher-highs, higher-lows pattern established in early May [1]. Analysts argue the short-term descending triangle breakout is a bear trap, or “fakeout,” rather than a structural breakdown. For instance, the price’s proximity to $118,300—the average cost basis for recent buyers—acts as a dynamic support zone. Short-term holders (1-day to 1-week UTXO Age Band) continue to reinforce this level, indicating confidence in the current range rather than panic selling.

The IBCI, a composite indicator tracking Bitcoin’s market cycle, adds context to the correction. While the index has entered the “Distribution” phase, it remains only 80% into this zone, far below saturation levels seen during previous tops [1]. Two key components of the IBCI—the Puell Multiple and Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR)—remain below their midpoints. The Puell Multiple, which measures miner profitability relative to hashrate growth, continues to signal a “Discount” range, suggesting miners are not yet experiencing excessive returns. This balance in valuation metrics contrasts with prior cycles, where overheated miner activity preceded corrections.

Analysts caution that while volatility persists, the market fundamentals remain robust. CryptoQuant contributor Gaah described the current phase as a “high-risk correction zone” but emphasized that the underlying bullish structure is intact [1]. Amr Taha noted Bitcoin’s alignment with realized prices reflects short-term holder confidence, further supporting the consolidation. These observations suggest the correction is a transitional phase rather than a bearish reversal, with no immediate signs of structural failure.

The analysis diverges from narratives of speculative collapse observed in past cycles. By combining IBCI data, on-chain metrics, and behavioral patterns, the market appears to be navigating a measured expansion. However, close monitoring of miner activity and retail participation is advised to detect shifts in momentum. For now, the data supports a strategic rebalancing phase, offering opportunities for capital allocation ahead of potential upward moves.

Source: [1] [Bitcoin (BTC) Not Capitulating: 3 Massive Reasons Why] [https://u.today/bitcoin-btc-not-capitulating-3-massive-reasons-why]