Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's 'Red October' Shatters Six-Year Uptrend as Geopolitics and Leverage Trigger Sell-Off

Bitcoin's price plummeted below $109,000 in early November 2025, marking the first "red October" for the cryptocurrency since 2018 and shattering a six-year streak of monthly gains dubbed "Uptober." The decline, triggered by geopolitical tensions and leveraged trading collapses, has rattled investor sentiment and reignited debates about the asset's long-term stability.

The selloff intensified on October 10, when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened steep tariffs on Chinese goods, sparking a broad risk-off move across global markets, according to CoinDesk. Bitcoin's price nosedived from the low $120,000s to around $105,000 within days, with derivatives platforms liquidating an estimated tens of billions in positions. The collapse erased over half a trillion dollars in market value before a tentative rebound failed to reclaim early October peaks. Analysts attribute the crash to crowded positioning in leveraged crypto bets rather than a crypto-specific issue, CoinDesk reported.

Historically, October has been a bullish month for Bitcoin, with a green trend spanning 2019 to 2024, CoinDesk reported. The 2025 downturn, however, signals a shift in market dynamics. "Seasonality is a tendency, not a promise," said Ki Young Ju, CEO of crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant, noting that Bitcoin's realized cap—a metric tracking the total value of coins at their last moved price—rose by $8 billion in October to surpass $1.1 trillion, according to TradingView. Despite robust on-chain inflows, the recovery lacks the momentum of past cycles, with ETFs and treasury firms like MicroStrategy slowing their large-scale purchases, TradingView noted.

Whale activity further complicates the outlook. Data from blockchain analysts shows older Bitcoin holders offloading coins at an accelerated rate, with the average age of sold coins now around 100 days—up from 30 days previously, BeinCrypto reports. James Check, a Bitcoin on-chain analyst, described this as a "changing of the guard," with long-term holders transitioning to traditional finance (TradFi) investors seeking calmer markets. Meanwhile, new whales—entities accumulating over 1,000 BTC—now control 45% of the Whale Realized Cap but face negative unrealized profits due to higher acquisition costs, according to an OKX analysis.

The market's structural evolution is also evident in institutional adoption. Bitcoin's recent realized price above $110,000 reflects growing demand from ETFs and treasury firms, yet analysts caution that sustained recovery depends on renewed buying by these entities, TradingView noted. Bitfinex analysts predict Bitcoin could hit $140,000 in November if ETF inflows rebound and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates twice in Q4, TradingView added. However, risks persist, including Trump's proposed tariffs and geopolitical volatility, BeinCrypto observed.

Despite short-term turbulence, some experts argue Bitcoin's fundamentals remain intact. Miner expansions and a rising hashrate—indicating increased network security—signal long-term bullish sentiment, TradingView noted. The Trump-linked American Bitcoin's $314 million ASIC purchase in August underscores growing infrastructure investments, TradingView added. Yet, the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic factors suggests future price movements may align more closely with traditional business cycles than the four-year halving pattern, an OKX explainer suggests.

As the crypto market navigates this inflection point, investors are closely watching for catalysts like Fed policy shifts and ETF inflow resurgences. For now, Bitcoin's price consolidation near $107,000—down 2.5% in the last 24 hours, a Benzinga piece highlights the fragile balance between bearish pressure and lingering optimism.