Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Red October Paves Way for Green November Rally

Bitcoin's First "Red October" Since 2018 Sparks Optimism for November Rally

Bitcoin closed October 2025 with a 3.6% decline, marking its first "red October" in seven years and breaking a long-standing bullish trend, according to a Coinfomania report. The dip, attributed to a $20 billion liquidation event on October 10, was highlighted in a CoinCentral analysis, and tested the cryptocurrency's resilience as it fell near its 50-week moving average before stabilizing above $100,000, the Coinfomania report noted. Analysts, however, argue the correction reflects short-term profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, CoinCentral adds.

Historical data suggests November could reverse the downward momentum. Over the past 12 years, Bitcoin has posted gains in 8 Novembers, with an average return of 4.25% and a median of 8.81%, the Coinfomania report found. Even in weaker years, such as 2023 (+8.8%) and 2024 (+0.56%), November has historically delivered positive returns, CoinCentral notes. This pattern has led traders to anticipate a rebound, particularly if Bitcoin surpasses $105,000, a level seen as a catalyst for a year-end push toward $120,000, the Coinfomania report suggested.

Technical indicators reinforce the bullish case. A "Change of Character" (CHoCH) pattern observed near $100,000 on four-hour charts suggests a potential shift in momentum, traders cited the Coinfomania report. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which plunged into the "fear" zone during October's selloff, has shown early signs of recovery, according to CoinCentral. Broader macroeconomic conditions also favor a rally, with monetary easing and quantitative easing measures maintaining a "risk-on" environment for crypto assets, the Coinfomania coverage observed.

The red October correction has drawn comparisons to 2018, when a similar downturn preceded a prolonged consolidation phase before the 2020–2021 bull run, as noted in a TradingView article. Unlike 2018, however, the current market environment is marked by stronger institutional adoption and ETF inflows, a Bitcoinsistemi post observed. Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy, for instance, has continued accumulating Bitcoin, recently boosting its holdings to 641,205 BTC valued at $69 billion, according to a TradingView report. Saylor's recent social media hints at further purchases have added to market optimism, the Bitcoinsistemi post added.

Geopolitical developments also play a role. A fragile truce between the U.S. and China—reducing tariffs on critical materials and resuming rare earth exports—has eased trade war anxieties, according to a Bitrue analysis. While investors remain cautious about the agreement's longevity, the reduction in geopolitical risk has stabilized markets, with Bitcoin holding steady above $110,000, Bitrue adds.

Despite the October dip, the broader crypto ecosystem remains bullish. Over $2.1 billion in tokens will unlock in November, and upcoming crypto conferences, ETF launches, and global adoption trends are seen as tailwinds, a Crypto.ro report noted. Institutional players like BlackRock and governments—including the U.S. and China—hold significant BTC reserves, signaling confidence in Bitcoin's store-of-value proposition, the Crypto.ro report added.

With November historically favorable for Bitcoin and macro conditions aligning, traders are positioning for a potential "Moonvember" rally. If the $105,000 threshold holds, the stage may be set for a year-end surge, reinforcing the adage that a red October often paves the way for a green November.