Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Reclaims $120,000 as Fed Rate Cut Odds Hit 93.9%

Bitcoin (BTC) has regained the $120,000 level after an early session dip to $118,931. The cryptocurrency initially struggled to maintain its upward momentum, particularly following Monday’s volatility, which saw it drop to $118,050 before rebounding on Tuesday. Analysts suggest that if BTC can decisively close above $120,000, it could spark a broader rally. The price currently stands at $120,551, having stabilized after recent fluctuations[1].

The renewed optimism around Bitcoin is partially attributed to shifting expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy. Recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed inflation at 2.7% year-over-year—unchanged from the previous month and below the forecasted 2.8%—has boosted market confidence in a potential September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut now stands at 93.9%. However, the core CPI data, at 3.1% year-over-year, indicates persistent inflationary pressures. Analysts caution that the Fed may still require additional data, such as the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) reports, before making a definitive move. A weaker-than-expected PPI reading could further reinforce expectations for lower rates and stimulate demand for high-risk assets like Bitcoin[1].

Bitcoin’s price trajectory has shown mixed signals in recent weeks. It rose 1.49% to close at $114,215 at the end of the previous weekend before continuing upward on Monday, reaching $115,051. The positive momentum, however, faltered on Tuesday as BTC dropped to $112,622. A recovery followed on Wednesday and Thursday, with BTC crossing $115,000 and then $117,000, settling at $117,515. On Friday, the price dipped again, closing at $116,883. A weekend rally pushed BTC back above $119,000, with a peak intraday high of $122,319 recorded on Monday. Despite losing some ground afterward, buyers returned on Tuesday, allowing BTC to reclaim $120,000 and settle at $120,113. As of the current session, the price is trading near $121,900, reflecting renewed buyer interest[1].

Analysts remain cautious given the recent price behavior. ZAYK Charts noted in a social media post that BTC appears to be entering a distribution phase, as indicated by the Wyckoff method. This phase is marked by sideways movement and weakening momentum, supported by bearish RSI divergence. If the distribution phase is confirmed, BTC could potentially drop toward the $95,000 level. A confirmation of this pattern would signal a potential markdown phase after a prior bullish accumulation and mark-up phase[1].

Bitcoin’s recent performance is also influenced by the broader macroeconomic environment. The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, with many investors positioning themselves in anticipation of rate cuts. The July CPI data provided some clarity but did not fully resolve uncertainties around inflationary pressures. As such, the upcoming PPI and Core PPI reports will play a crucial role in shaping the next phase of Bitcoin’s price action. A softer-than-expected reading could provide further tailwinds for risk assets and cryptocurrencies, reinforcing the bullish case for BTC[1].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Reclaims $120,000 As Odds For Fed Rate Cut Increase

https://bitzo.com/2025/08/bitcoin-price-analysis-btc-reclaims-120000-as-odds-for-fed-rate-cut-increase