Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Rebound Outlook Clouded by Fed's Divisions and Delayed Data

Bitcoin Poised for Rebound as Fed Rate Cut Speculation Intensifies

The cryptocurrency market is bracing for a potential turnaround as Federal Reserve officials signal renewed openness to rate cuts in 2025. Bitcoin BTC, which has slumped over 30% from record highs, briefly bounced above $84,000 following remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, who suggested room for policy adjustments by December. The shift has reignited hopes of a crypto rebound, though analysts caution that market volatility remains high amid conflicting signals from central bank policymakers.

Williams' comments marked a pivot from earlier hawkish stances, stating that "it is imperative to restore inflation to our 2% longer-run goal without creating undue risks to employment." His remarks contrasted with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who downplayed labor market concerns and emphasized inflation control. The divergence underscores a broader debate within the Fed about balancing price stability with economic growth. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' decision to delay October jobs and inflation data until December has added uncertainty, leaving policymakers with outdated information for their December meeting.

Bitcoin's price action reflects the market's sensitivity to these signals. After a 10% sell-off earlier this month, the asset staged a modest recovery to $83,936, though it remains down 9.5% in 24 hours. The rebound coincided with a sharp rise in the probability of a December rate cut, now priced at over 70% by traders. However, bearish sentiment persists, with Bitcoin ETFs on track for their worst month of outflows yet. Investors have withdrawn $3.5 billion from U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs in November, led by BlackRock's IBIT, which alone saw $2.2 billion in redemptions.

Market analysts warn of parallels to the 2018 financial environment, where aggressive rate cuts fueled speculative bubbles. Bank of America's Michael Hartnett noted that stretched valuations and "bubbly animal spirits" in crypto and equities could trigger a Fed "capitulation" similar to late 2018. He highlighted Bitcoin's 30% pullback this year as an early signal of a potential downturn, while also pointing to record outflows from crypto funds and inflows into Treasuries as defensive moves.

Derivatives markets reinforce the bearish outlook, with the $80,000 Bitcoin put option becoming the most popular bet on Deribit, boasting $2.03 billion in open interest. This contrasts with earlier optimism, when $140,000 call options dominated trading activity. The shift reflects growing skepticism about Bitcoin's ability to stabilize, particularly as AI-driven tech stocks and broader risk assets also falter .

Bitcoin Bancorp, a Bitcoin ATM operator, reported a 93% revenue increase for Q3 2025, signaling resilience in retail adoption despite the broader market slump . However, the company's CEO emphasized that regulatory clarity and infrastructure growth will be critical for 2026. Meanwhile, BitMine Immersion revealed $11.2 billion in combined crypto and cash holdings, positioning itself as a major player in the sector .

The path forward remains uncertain. While Williams' dovish comments offer hope for a rate cut, internal Fed divisions and delayed data complicate the outlook. For Bitcoin, the interplay between monetary policy and market sentiment will likely dictate whether the recent rebound is a precursor to a broader recovery or a temporary reprieve amid a deeper correction.