Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Rebound Hinges on Fed Policy Amid ETF Outflows and Technical Shifts

Bitcoin's recent slump appears poised to reverse as analysts highlight easing selling pressure and technical indicators suggesting a potential rebound. Despite a record $3.79 billion in outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in November, the cryptocurrency's price action and market dynamics are shifting toward a more balanced outlook. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) remain bearish, with Bitcoin trading below all three key thresholds, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped into oversold territory at 21, signaling potential for a near-term correction.

The bearish momentum, however, may be losing steam. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below the signal line and zero, with a widening negative histogram that has historically signaled strengthening selling pressure. Yet, analysts note that a contraction in the MACD histogram and an RSI recovery above 30 could herald stabilization. This aligns with broader market sentiment, as December Federal Reserve rate-cut odds have surged to 71%, sparking optimism among crypto traders who view lower U.S. interest rates as a tailwind for Bitcoin and other digital assets.

The ETF outflows, while significant, have not yet triggered a broader capitulation. BlackRock's IBIT ETF alone accounted for over $2 billion in redemptions this month, but newly launched Solana and XRP ETFs have attracted $300 million and $410 million in inflows, respectively. This divergence highlights shifting investor priorities, with some capital reallocating to altcoins despite the broader downturn. Ether, for instance, trades below all its key EMAs at $2,679, with its RSI also in oversold conditions at 26. However, XRP's price action remains particularly fragile, with its RSI at 23 and a descending trend line from $3.10 capping recovery attempts.

Market participants are also closely watching the Fed's policy trajectory. While the probability of a December rate cut has fluctuated, recent comments from Federal Reserve officials like John Williams have signaled openness to easing policy without jeopardizing inflation targets. This contrasts with more hawkish stances from figures like Susan Collins, who argued that current rates remain "mildly restrictive" and appropriate. The uncertainty has created a volatile environment, with Bitcoin's November rout-on track to be its worst since 2022-deepening amid leveraged liquidations and souring sentiment.

Institutional dynamics further complicate the outlook. A group of 12 U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw $903 million in outflows on Thursday, the second-largest single-day redemption since their January 2024 debut. Meanwhile, the exclusion of crypto treasury companies like Strategy from major stock indexes in early 2026 has sparked backlash, with Bitcoin advocates calling for a boycott of JP Morgan and other firms. This regulatory and institutional turbulence underscores the fragility of market confidence, though some analysts argue that bear markets are cyclical and that Bitcoin has historically bottomed roughly one year after topping in post-halving years.

As the crypto market navigates these headwinds, the interplay between technical indicators, Fed policy, and institutional sentiment will likely dictate the next phase of Bitcoin's trajectory. For now, traders are cautiously optimistic, betting that a combination of stabilizing fundamentals and potential rate cuts could catalyze a relief rally.