Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Realized Price Crosses 200-WMA for First Time Since 2020

Bitcoin’s realized price has recently crossed above its 200-week moving average (WMA), a critical technical level monitored by traders and analysts for potential trend signals. This crossover has historically been associated with periods of bullish momentum in the asset, prompting speculation about what might follow [1]. The development, highlighted by analyst James Van Straten on X, suggests a potential shift in market dynamics, with the realized price — a measure of the average cost basis of BTC holders — indicating that investors are, on average, in a net unrealized profit [1].

The 200-WMA is a widely used technical analysis tool that smooths out price data over a 200-week period to identify long-term trends. When the realized price moves above this line, it is often interpreted as a sign of growing institutional or market confidence [1]. The most recent crossover marks the first time this has occurred in the current cycle since 2020. Historically, the 2020 crossover preceded the start of a significant bull run, which lasted until 2022. In 2017, while no such crossover occurred before the bull market, a retest of the 200-WMA did coincide with a sharp price increase [1]. Van Straten notes that the timing of such crossovers often aligns with the early stages of a bull market, suggesting a similar pattern may be unfolding now [1].

Bitcoin’s spot price has seen considerable volatility in recent weeks. After reaching a new all-time high above $124,000, the price has since retreated to $118,300, raising questions about the strength of the current upward trend [1]. Analysts caution that while the 200-WMA flip may indicate a shift in sentiment, further confirmation from on-chain metrics and volume data is necessary to determine whether the trend is sustainable [1]. A brief pullback to $121,800 has also intensified speculation about whether this is a temporary consolidation or the beginning of a more extended correction [4]. Historical data suggests that corrections often follow major technical milestones, and if buying pressure remains strong, they can serve as a prelude to more sustained upward movement [1].

Another notable development is the recent surge in institutional buying activity. Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments observed that institutional buying accounted for 75% of Coinbase’s volume, a level historically correlated with higher prices in the following week [1]. All readings above this threshold have previously been followed by price increases, suggesting that institutional demand continues to play a pivotal role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory [1].

The broader market environment remains dynamic, with Bitcoin benefiting from a combination of favorable on-chain activity and growing institutional interest. However, while these factors contribute to the overall bullish sentiment, they are not directly linked to the 200-WMA crossover and should be analyzed separately [5]. The market will be closely watching for signs of renewed accumulation and whether the 200-WMA continues to act as a support level in the event of a deeper pullback [4].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Realized Price Flips 200-WMA: What Happens Next? (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1041302-20250815)

[2] Bitcoin Realized Price Flips 200-WMA: What Happens Next? (https://cryptorank.io/news/tag/bitcoin-200-wma)

[3] 14 Aug 2025: Bitcoin Makes New Highs as ETFs Flood In (https://www.publish0x.com/bitcoin-inspired/14-aug-2025-bitcoin-makes-new-highs-as-etfs-flood-in-but-min-xqvollq)

[4] Blog (https://final-cryptotool.com/blog)

[5] PayPal Ventures, Coinbase Ventures and others back... (https://www.coinglass.com/ru/news/533866)