Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Rangebound Struggle Masks a Bigger Bull Case Building Below the Surface

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase amid a mixed outlook for traders and analysts. Price action has shown that BTC has been trading within a narrow range since late August, with resistance at approximately $111,961 and support at around $107,557 [1]. Despite this stagnation, leverage in the derivatives market has continued to rise, as reflected by the Bitcoin Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR), which has increased since early August [1]. This rising ELR suggests that traders are not retreating from the market but instead increasing their risk exposure, indicating confidence in the short-term outlook [1].

A key metric under scrutiny is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio, which currently stands at 0.52 [2]. According to historical data, the NUPL has previously reached the 0.7–0.8 range during bull market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 [2]. This suggests that Bitcoin is in the "middle phase" of a bull cycle, and, based on historical patterns, has a strong likelihood of reaching the $120,000–$150,000 range in the medium to long term [2]. The on-chain data further supports this view, showing that only 13.71% of Bitcoin supply is in a loss position, far from the levels typically seen during bear market capitulation [4].

In the near term, the price of Bitcoin has shown resilience after a brief pullback below $110,000. The cryptocurrency has rebounded to around $111,600, with $112,500 being a key resistance level to watch [4]. A breakout above this level could signal the beginning of a renewed recovery phase. However, if buy-side pressure weakens, the price could remain rangebound or potentially fall below $107,557 [1]. On-chain metrics indicate that whale activity has decreased, which may reduce market overhead supply and allow for further accumulation by institutions and retail investors [3].

Looking at broader market conditions, Bitcoin has shown signs of decoupling from the U.S. stock market. For example, while the S&P 500 fell by 1.48% on September 2, Bitcoin rose by 1.58% [7]. This divergence highlights Bitcoin's role as a macro hedge, particularly in an environment of anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 95% probability of a rate cut in September [5]. This macroeconomic shift could further enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a high-beta asset, especially if the U.S. dollar weakens [5].

In summary, while Bitcoin faces near-term resistance levels and potential corrections due to profit-taking, the long-term outlook remains cautiously bullish. On-chain data and historical patterns point to a market in a mid-bull phase, with structural support from institutional inflows and ETF demand [3]. The outcome of the next price move will depend heavily on whether bulls can break through key resistance levels, which would likely accelerate the momentum toward higher targets.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Price Forecast: Navigating Between $104K Support and $125K Resistance (https://beincrypto.com/btc-price-stalls-futures-traders-show-confidence/)

[2] Are We Still Bullish on Bitcoin, or Are There Bearish Signs? (https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/are-we-still-bullish-on-bitcoin-or-are-there-bearish-signs-cryptoquant-analyst-explains-pointing-to-historical-data/)

[3] Bitcoin Price Recovery To $115000 On The Cards (https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-price-recovery-on-the-cards/)

[4] Bitcoin Pric Forecast: Can BTC-USD Break $113K Resistance (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-usd-prices-bulls-eye-113k-usd)

[5] Bitcoin bulls 'still in control' as BTC price passes $112K (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bulls-still-in-control-btc-price-passes-112k-analysis)

[6] Decoupling: Crypto Goes Up While US Stock Market Goes Down (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/decoupling-crypto-goes-while-us-191939299.html)