Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Rally Driven by Institutional Adoption and $5.3B ETF Inflows Amid Fading Traditional Cycles

Bitcoin’s ongoing rally has sparked debate over whether the traditional market cycles that once defined its price action are obsolete. Analyst Ki Young Ju, known for his whale-retail cycle framework, recently conceded that the model no longer applies. Historically, he advised buying during whale accumulation and selling when retail investors entered, but this strategy has failed in the current cycle. Instead, older whales are selling to newer long-term holders—likely institutions—while retail participation remains subdued [1].

The shift is evident in on-chain data. Since early 2024, large wallets—potentially ETFs or institutional funds—have accumulated over 900,000 BTC, far outpacing whale selling volumes. Meanwhile, retail investors have been net sellers since 2023, with their holdings declining steadily [2]. This divergence challenges the conventional narrative of retail-driven hype cycles, suggesting a structural change in market dynamics. Google Trends further supports this view, showing minimal spikes in Bitcoin-related searches compared to the 2021 frenzy, indicating limited retail FOMO [3].

Institutional adoption has emerged as the primary catalyst. Regulated funds and ETFs have injected over $5.3 billion into Bitcoin in recent months, stabilizing prices despite short-term volatility. Analysts credit this inflow for the asset’s resilience, particularly as older whales offload holdings to institutional buyers. However, weekly data reveals a $349 million outflow in Bitcoin, raising questions about market sentiment [4]. This duality—long-term institutional buying versus sporadic short-term selling—has created a fragile equilibrium.

The debate extends to technical analysis. While some predict Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by year-end, driven by ETF demand and regulatory progress, others warn of macroeconomic risks. Recent dips, such as a $115,000 pullback in July, highlight the asset’s sensitivity to broader economic shifts [5]. Benjamin Cowen, a crypto analyst, noted that altcoins often see summer rallies but expects capital to reflow to Bitcoin by late August, given its dominance hovering near 60% [6].

Ki Young Ju’s admission of miscalculation underscores the evolving landscape. He acknowledged that applying old cycle models to a market now dominated by institutional players led to premature predictions of a bull run’s end. “The structure has changed,” he wrote, vowing to prioritize data-driven analysis moving forward [7]. This pivot reflects broader industry recognition that Bitcoin’s trajectory is no longer dictated by retail behavior alone.

The implications are significant. With miners and institutions holding larger Bitcoin stakes, their valuation gains have become a new source of market stability. VanEck’s ChainCheck report highlighted that rising prices directly boost equity for mining operations, further entrenching Bitcoin’s role in traditional finance [8]. Yet, this concentration also raises concerns about systemic risks as fewer entities control larger portions of the asset.

Market participants remain divided. While proponents argue robust ETF and corporate treasury demand validates Bitcoin’s fundamentals, skeptics point to stalled momentum and mixed inflow/outflow data as signs of caution. The Federal Reserve’s potential rate cuts and pro-crypto legislation add layers of uncertainty, with regulators and central banks poised to shape the next phase of Bitcoin’s evolution.

As of July 25, 2025, Bitcoin traded near $116,578, having hit a new all-time high days earlier. The asset’s ability to maintain these levels will depend on whether institutional confidence outweighs short-term volatility and whether retail interest eventually resurges—or remains sidelined by a market it no longer dominates.

Sources:

[1] [This Bitcoin Rally Isn’t What You Think, But Who Is Driving It?](https://coinpedia.org/news/this-bitcoin-rally-isnt-what-you-think-but-who-is-driving-it/)

[2] [Bitcoin Breaks Records: What's Fueling the Latest Crypto ...](https://bitcoinira.com/articles/bitcoin-breaks-records)

[3] [The latest cryptocurrency rally has stalled, with bitcoin ...](https://www.instagram.com/p/DMf4Cd5gp5A/)

[4] [Bitcoin's rise is giving miners a bigger bump than you think ...](https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/bitcoins-rise-is-giving-miners-a-bigger-bump-than-you-think-says-hives-frank-holmes)

[5] [analysts reveal the key moves that could send it soaring](https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/bitcoin-eyes-150-000-analysts-reveal-the-key-moves-that-could-send-it-soaring/ar-AA1IMyQY)

[6] [3 Reasons Why the Crypto Market Isn't in a Bubble (Yet)](https://www.aol.com/3-reasons-why-crypto-market-151100011.html)

[7] [VanEck Mid-July 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck](https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vaneck-mid-july-2025-bitcoin-chaincheck/)

[8] [Bitcoin](https://www.businessinsider.com/category/bitcoin)