Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Rallies Past $90K on Thin Liquidity, Retreats Amid Macro Headwinds

Bitcoin surged above $90,000 on December 25, 2025, amid thin liquidity and a range-bound market, though it quickly retreated as macroeconomic and onchain factors continued to constrain its valuation. The price action came as stablecoin inflows and exchange netflows showed mixed signals, failing to sustain a bullish breakout despite the strong intraday move. Analysts noted that while the cryptonative liquidity supported Bitcoin's rally in 2024, macroeconomic conditions in 2025 began to curtail outsized returns according to market analysis.

The rally occurred against a backdrop of macroeconomic tightening, with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrinking by $300 billion in 2025, and real yields averaging 1.6% to 2.1% according to financial data. These structural constraints limited Bitcoin's ability to break out of its range, as institutional demand for the asset waned and ETF outflows persisted. Despite the price surge, Bitcoin remained 30% below its October 2025 high near $126,000 as reported by financial sources.

Bitcoin's volatility also drew attention as it briefly hit $24,111 on a specific Binance trading pair, a flash wick that highlighted the fragility of liquidity in niche markets according to market reports. While this event did not affect major pairs, it underscored how thin liquidity can distort price discovery during holidays when fewer traders are active. This fragility, combined with a large options expiry on December 26, added to the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's next move according to industry analysis.

Why the Standoff Happened

Bitcoin's struggle to break above $90,000 reflects the tug-of-war between onchain structure and macroeconomic constraints. Onchain metrics showed that the MVRV 365-day SMA stabilized between 1.8 and 2.2 throughout 2025, a range consistent with bear-market behavior but not indicative of a full breakdown. However, macroeconomic factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's tightening policy and real yield increases, limited Bitcoin's upside potential. The combination of these factors left Bitcoin trapped in a defined range between $80,000 and $90,000 as market data shows.

Stablecoin inflows and exchange netflows, once key drivers of Bitcoin's valuation, accounted for less than 6% of MVRV variation in 2025, signaling a shift in market dynamics. With institutional investors increasingly treating Bitcoin as a hybrid asset-part risk-on proxy, part safe haven-it has struggled to align with either narrative in late 2025. While other assets like gold and equities surged, Bitcoin's performance remained muted, as demand waned and selling pressure increased .

What Analysts Are Watching

Analysts are closely monitoring several key indicators to determine Bitcoin's next move. ETF outflows, particularly from U.S.-listed products, have totaled $825 million since mid-December, driven largely by tax-loss harvesting strategies as year-end approached . These outflows, combined with a $30.3 billion options expiry on December 26, have created a volatile environment where price pinning and directional moves are both possible.

Liquidity normalization after the holidays is another focal point. With order books thin and spreads wide, even modest trading activity can cause sharp price swings . Traders are also watching whether ETF flows reverse after the holiday lull and how the market responds to the expiration of large options contracts. The removal of these constraints could provide a catalyst for Bitcoin to break out of its range or slip further into a bearish pattern .

Risks to the Outlook

The broader macroeconomic environment remains a significant risk for Bitcoin's valuation. While onchain structure remains intact, the structural headwinds from real yields and Federal Reserve policy suggest that Bitcoin's next rally is more likely to be driven by macroeconomic easing rather than onchain activity . The Fed's balance sheet remains a key variable, and any further contraction could exacerbate liquidity challenges for the crypto market.

Additionally, geopolitical developments and regulatory shifts could influence Bitcoin's performance. For example, California's proposed 5% wealth tax on billionaires has raised concerns among crypto executives, who argue it could trigger capital flight . While not directly tied to Bitcoin's price, regulatory uncertainty in major markets could weigh on investor sentiment and reduce capital inflows into the asset class. Meanwhile, the Trump administration's alignment with tech and crypto firms has created a more industry-friendly environment, but this could shift if political dynamics change .

What This Means for Investors
For investors, the current market environment suggests that a macroeconomic overlay is essential to understanding Bitcoin's future. Relying solely on onchain data could lead to incomplete or misleading conclusions, as macroeconomic factors are increasingly shaping the asset's valuation . A sustained rally would require a significant shift in interest rate expectations or renewed global liquidity growth, rather than relying on exchange flows or ETF inflows alone.

In the short term, Bitcoin's price remains within a defined range, with $90,000 acting as key resistance and $85,000 as a critical support level. The market is in a state of balance, but this equilibrium is unlikely to last. A decisive move above $90,000 with strong volume would indicate bullish continuation, while a clean break below $80,000 would signal bearish acceptance . Investors should remain cautious of false breakouts and focus on the broader macroeconomic environment for cues on Bitcoin's next directional move.