Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Rallies to $119.5K on Trade Optimism and $86B Institutional Inflows

Bitcoin’s performance around Federal Reserve meetings has historically drawn attention from traders, with the cryptocurrency rallying in five of the last seven FOMC decisions regardless of the central bank’s policy outcome. This pattern has fueled optimism ahead of the upcoming meeting, as market participants anticipate potential price volatility driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and forward-looking sentiment [1]. The July 2025 rally to a peak of $119,552.6, supported by trade optimism and institutional inflows, underscores the asset’s sensitivity to broader market dynamics [2].

Traders are particularly focused on Wednesday’s Fed decision, though significant rate adjustments are not expected. The emphasis lies on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting comments, which have historically influenced market psychology more than the actual policy decisions themselves [1]. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s reaction to prior Fed meetings often stems from the resolution of uncertainty rather than the rate changes themselves. For instance, predictable outcomes have historically led to risk-on sentiment, with crypto assets benefiting from reduced volatility and renewed investor confidence [1].

Current momentum appears bolstered by favorable macroeconomic conditions. Institutional investment into Bitcoin has surged, with approximately $86 billion added since early 2024, including $43 billion in the first half of 2025 [3]. This inflow coincided with a U.S.-EU trade agreement that delayed tariffs on Chinese goods, lifting global risk appetite and pushing S&P 500 futures to record levels [4]. However, liquidity constraints pose challenges. On-chain analytics highlight a rising stablecoin supply ratio (SSR), signaling weak liquidity as stablecoin inflows lag behind Bitcoin’s price action [6].

Technical indicators suggest a potential breakout if Bitcoin sustains above $117,000, according to trader forecasts. Rekt Capital observed a bull flag pattern after Bitcoin closed at $119,450 weekly, while Crypto Tony projected a test of all-time highs under this scenario [6]. Conversely, CryptoQuant analysts caution that upward momentum could stall without fresh liquidity, adding complexity to the outlook [6].

Macro events this week—namely the Fed decision and Q2 GDP data—will further shape Bitcoin’s trajectory. Analysts at Mosaic Asset warn that inflationary concerns and tariff impacts on the CPI may prompt a cautious Fed stance, despite softer inflation readings [5]. The U.S. money supply (M2) has expanded 4.5% year-on-year, offering a supportive backdrop for risk assets [6]. However, historical patterns suggest caution: Bitcoin’s July performance, while strong, has averaged 7.85% gains over the past 12 years, with the 2025 rally slightly exceeding this norm but not deviating significantly [6].

Looking ahead, market attention will shift to August, a historically weaker period for Bitcoin with average returns of 1.75% [6]. Analyst Aksel Kibar urged bulls to hold early July gains to maintain momentum, citing a $141,300 price target if the $109,000 support level holds [6]. Nevertheless, liquidity constraints and policy uncertainty underscore the need for caution as macroeconomic releases and Fed decisions unfold.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin Price Today: Rises to $119.5k Amid Trade Cheer](https://ng.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bitcoin-price-today-rises-to-1195k-amid-trade-cheer-fed-crypto-report-eyed-2027611)

[2] [Bitcoin Climbs to $119.5K on Trade Optimism](https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-992654-20250729)

[3] [Bitcoin Eyes $124K as Institutions Pump $86B Into Market](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-eyes-124k-institutions-pump-86b-market-2507/)

[4] [‘Biggest Trade Deal Ever’ — 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week](https://cointelegraph.com/news/biggest-trade-deal-ever-5-things-bitcoin-this-week)

[5] [Fed Decision, $175M Token Unlocks, and Starknet Upgrade Set to Rock Crypto Markets](https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/fed-decision-175m-token-unlocks-and-starknet-upgrade-set-to-rock-crypto-markets-this-week-202507280926)

[6] [Bitcoin Eyes $130K If $110K Support Holds](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-eyes-130k-110k-support-holds-2507/)