Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Quiet Transformation: Why Institutions Are Taking It Seriously

JPMorgan analysts have raised their expectations for bitcoin, suggesting the cryptocurrency could surge to $126,000 by the end of 2025. The projection is based on a dramatic drop in bitcoin’s volatility, which has brought it closer to gold in risk-adjusted terms, and a growing institutional appetite driven by corporate treasury holdings and index inclusion [1].

In a research note led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan highlighted that bitcoin’s six-month rolling volatility has plummeted from nearly 60% at the start of the year to approximately 30%. This significant decline, according to the report, has never been seen before and has made bitcoin more attractive to institutional investors who prioritize stability and risk management [2]. The bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has now dropped to 2.0, the lowest on record, indicating that bitcoin now requires only twice the risk capital of gold in portfolio construction. This shift has made it more appealing for large-scale allocations [1].

A key factor supporting bitcoin’s reduced volatility is the increased accumulation by corporate treasuries. JPMorgan noted that over 6% of bitcoin’s total supply is now held by corporations, a trend it likened to central bank quantitative easing in terms of its stabilizing effect on the market. Companies such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Metaplanet have been particularly active, with Metaplanet recently achieving inclusion in the FTSE All-World Index, which has spurred passive inflows into the asset [1]. These long-term holdings contribute to smoother price action and reduced market swings, further enhancing bitcoin’s institutional appeal [2].

JPMorgan calculated that bitcoin’s current market capitalization of $2.2 trillion would need to grow by approximately 13% to match the private gold investment market on a risk-adjusted basis. This would equate to a price of around $126,000, assuming continued volatility stability and institutional adoption. The analysts emphasized that the gap between bitcoin’s current price and this theoretical valuation has narrowed significantly, from $36,000 above in late 2024 to now $13,000 below, suggesting substantial upside potential [1].

The firm also highlighted the role of index inclusion in driving bitcoin’s adoption. As more bitcoin-exposed companies are added to global equity benchmarks, passive capital inflows from index-tracking funds are increasing. This development is enhancing bitcoin’s legitimacy as a portfolio asset and aligning it more closely with traditional investments like gold. JPMorgan analysts noted that the structural inclusion of bitcoin-related equities is a key enabler of broader institutional participation, particularly among risk-conscious investors [2].

While JPMorgan’s forecast is optimistic, the analysis is grounded in concrete metrics such as volatility ratios and institutional holdings. The firm has not indicated a shift in its broader macroeconomic stance but has instead recalibrated its expectations for bitcoin based on recent market behavior. Analysts caution that volatility could rebound, and while the current trajectory suggests continued growth, the ultimate price path will depend on broader macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments [2].

Source: [1] JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Undervalued, Targets $126K by ... (https://bitbo.io/news/jpmorgan-bitcoin-126k-forecast/) [2] Bitcoin Could Hit $126K by Year-End, Says JPMorgan (https://coinlaw.io/jpmorgan-bitcoin-forecast-126k/)