Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Quest to Dethrone Gold as Ultimate Store of Value: VanEck's Bold Thesis

Bitcoin Could Hit $644K, Says VanEck's Matthew SigelCan Bitcoin Rival Gold? VanEck Predicts $644K Bitcoin by 2028^[1]

VanEck, a prominent investment firm, has projected that Bitcoin could reach $644,000 by 2028 if it captures half of gold's market value. This forecast is based on gold's recent record high of nearly $4,000 per ounce, which implies a proportional valuation for Bitcoin. Matthew Sigel, VanEck's head of digital asset research, emphasized that Bitcoin's role as a modern store of value is growing, particularly among younger investors in emerging markets who increasingly favor it over traditional assets like goldGold’s Record High Implies Bitcoin Could Reach $644K, VanEck^[2].

The prediction hinges on several key drivers. Institutional adoption of Bitcoin has accelerated, with firms exploring its utility as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Additionally, advancements in Layer 2 solutions are addressing scalability challenges, enabling broader adoption for everyday transactions. Sigel noted that generational shifts-particularly the preference of younger demographics for digital assets-are further solidifying Bitcoin's long-term growth potentialVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[3].

VanEck's thesis aligns with broader economic trends. Gold's 49% year-to-date return, compared to Bitcoin's 31%, highlights its current dominance as a safe-haven asset. However, analysts argue that Bitcoin's unique properties-its fixed supply and decentralized nature-position it to rival gold over time. JPMorgan has dubbed the pairing of gold and Bitcoin the "debasement trade," suggesting that both assets serve as hedges against inflation and weak currenciesBitcoin Blasts Past $85,000: New All-Time High Fuels Wild Price Predictions^[4].

Critically, the timeline for achieving this target remains debated. Derek Lim of Caladan acknowledged that while VanEck's direction is "correct," the 5–10-year timeframe is more realistic due to Bitcoin's shift toward stable, incremental gains rather than exponential surges. The next halving event, scheduled for 2024, could act as a catalyst, historically coinciding with price peaks 500–550 days post-event. However, Lim noted that institutional involvement and reduced volatility in this cycle may extend the timelineVanEck Sees Bitcoin Reaching Half of Gold’s Market Value^[5].

Long-term projections from VanEck extend beyond 2028. By 2050, the firm estimates Bitcoin could be used to settle 10% of international trade and 5% of domestic trade, with central banks potentially allocating 2.5% of their reserves to BTC. Using a velocity of money equation, VanEck forecasts a $2.9 million price tag by 2050, translating to a $61 trillion market cap. The Layer 2 ecosystem alone could add $7.6 trillion to Bitcoin's value, further amplifying its growth trajectoryCan Bitcoin Rival Gold? VanEck Predicts $644K Bitcoin by 2028^[6].

Despite skepticism from some quarters, the "debasement trade" narrative continues to gain traction. Larry Fink of BlackRock recently reiterated that Bitcoin could hit $700,000 as a hedge against currency debasement, while Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has faced shareholder proposals to explore Bitcoin treasuries. Although major tech firms like Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft have rejected such proposals, citing volatility and regulatory uncertainties, proponents argue that Bitcoin's deflationary design and growing utility could eventually outweigh these concernsBitcoin as Corporate Treasury: Why Meta, Amazon and Microsoft All Said No^[7].

The market's immediate reaction to VanEck's forecast has been mixed. While Bitcoin surged past $85,000 in October 2025, reaching an all-time high, short-term volatility remains a challenge. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and regulatory clarity in key jurisdictions are seen as critical factors for sustained growth. As the next halving approaches, investors will closely monitor whether Bitcoin's price trajectory aligns with the ambitious $644K target or follows a more measured path toward long-term adoption.