Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Quantum Deadline: Urgent Action or Existential Risk?

Bitcoin Faces Growing Quantum Computing Risk Within Decade, Warns Borderless Capital

Bitcoin's cryptographic security is under increasing scrutiny as quantum computing advances threaten to undermine its foundational encryption protocols. Experts warn that without urgent solutions, the digital asset could face a critical vulnerability within the next five to 10 years. The Human Rights Foundation (HRF) recently highlighted in an HRF report that 6.51 million BTC—valued at approximately $188 billion—are at risk from quantum attacks, with 1.72 million BTC in early Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses particularly exposed. These coins, including an estimated 1.1 million BTC attributed to Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, remain dormant but could be targeted once quantum computers achieve sufficient processing power.

The urgency has sparked debates within the Bitcoin community. At the July 2025 Presidio Bitcoin Quantum Summit, 80 experts concluded that quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin's encryption could emerge within 5–10 years. This timeline aligns with warnings from Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative digital asset fund Carpriole, who declared in October 2025, "If Bitcoin doesn't solve Quantum in the next year, Gold will keep outperforming it forever," as noted in an October 2025 Cointelegraph report. Amit Mehra, a partner at venture capital firm Borderless Capital, echoed the sentiment, stating that quantum computing's rapid evolution could pose a "problem" within the decade in a TradingView article.

The threat arises from quantum algorithms like Shor's, which can theoretically crack the elliptic curve cryptography securing Bitcoin's blockchain. Short-range attacks on newly exposed addresses and long-range attacks on dormant P2PK addresses are particularly concerning. While SUI Research has developed a quantum-resistant cryptographic framework for blockchains like SUI, Near, and Solana, the solution does not apply to Bitcoin or Ethereum. This gap has intensified calls for Bitcoin-specific post-quantum security measures, though scaling challenges remain. Proposed solutions such as lattice-based or hash-based signatures require significantly larger data sizes than current signatures, complicating blockchain efficiency.

The U.S. government is also weighing quantum computing investments to maintain competitive edge, with reports suggesting the Department of Commerce may allocate funds to stay ahead of China. Meanwhile, corporate players like IBM and Google are advancing quantum hardware, with IBM's 120-qubit system and Google's 105-qubit Willow chip accelerating the timeline for practical quantum applications.

Despite the urgency, consensus on a Bitcoin-specific roadmap remains elusive. The Presidio Summit confirmed no agreement on whether to "burn" or "steal" vulnerable Satoshi-era coins. Institutional custodians and exchanges are urged to adopt better practices, such as eliminating address reuse, to mitigate risks before quantum breakthroughs occur.

As the clock ticks, the Bitcoin community faces a pivotal decision: delay action and risk existential threats or invest now in quantum-resistant upgrades that could reshape the cryptocurrency's future.