Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Q4 to Test 4-Year Halving Cycle Amid Institutional Shift

Bitcoin’s recent price movement above $124,000 has sparked renewed debate over whether the asset is still governed by its traditional four-year halving cycle, according to Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya. In a video published on August 14, Consorti argued that the fourth quarter will serve as a definitive test to determine whether Bitcoin remains subject to this long-standing pattern or if it has entered a new era shaped by institutional capital and evolving market dynamics [1].

Consorti highlighted that Bitcoin’s current bull market has already lasted 21 months—significantly longer than previous cycles—raising the question of whether the 4-year cycle is still relevant. “At the very least, the 4-year cycle will be tested in Q4 of this year,” he stated, pointing to the historical tug-of-war between bulls and bears around the $118,000–$120,000 range. He noted that bulls have been gradually gaining control, a trend that aligns with the seasonal shift out of the “summer doldrums” and a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1].

A key component of Consorti’s analysis is the role of institutional and long-term investors in shaping Bitcoin’s price behavior. He emphasized that spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted investors such as retirees, pension funds, and endowments—entities with no immediate intention to sell their holdings. These long-horizon investors, he explained, contribute to a more stable and less volatile price environment, characterized by consistent uptrends, periodic consolidations, and slower but more sustained price movements [1].

To illustrate this shift in buyer behavior, Consorti cited Harvard University’s Q2 purchase of 1.9 million shares in the iShares Bitcoin Trust, worth $116.7 million, as evidence of institutional adoption. He also noted that companies are increasingly holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets with no intention to sell, which further stabilizes supply dynamics and reduces speculative volatility [1].

Consorti’s perspective is supported by on-chain analyst James Check, who has observed signs that the 4-year cycle may be breaking down in the current market environment. If Bitcoin experiences a massive price surge and subsequent correction by the end of 2024, the cycle could remain intact. However, if the asset continues to exhibit more gradual and sustained growth without a traditional peak, it may signal a fundamental change in how the market operates [1].

The analyst also pointed to broader macroeconomic factors that could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months. He noted that easing financial conditions, post-summer institutional inflows, and ongoing demand from ETFs, corporations, and high-net-worth individuals could drive another upward leg in Q4. However, he remained cautious, stating that the true nature of Bitcoin’s new market regime will only be clear after the fourth quarter [1].

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $119,068, having previously rejected at the 1.414 Fibonacci extension level. The upcoming months will be crucial in determining whether the traditional halving cycle remains a reliable guide or if a new market structure is taking hold [1].

Source: [1] Q4 Will Decide If The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead: Analyst https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/q4-will-decide-if-the-4-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-dead/