Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Put Activity Surpasses Calls Fivefold as Traders Hedge for August Pullback

Options data from crypto derivatives platform Derive.xyz indicate a growing bearish sentiment among traders for both Bitcoin and Ethereum ahead of the August 29 expiry. The shift is evident in the increasing demand for put options, which are typically used to hedge against downside risks. Derive’s Head of Research, Dr. Sean Dawson, highlighted that for Ethereum, puts now exceed calls by over 10% for the August 29 maturity, with the most concentrated interest at strike prices of $3,200, $3,000, and $2,200 [1]. Ethereum’s price as of August 6 hovered around $3,624, reflecting a more than 4% decline in the previous week [1].

The bearish positioning is even more pronounced in Bitcoin, where put open interest is nearly five times that of calls for the same expiry. Approximately half of the Bitcoin put activity is focused on the $95,000 strike, with a quarter concentrated around $80,000 and $100,000. Dawson described this as a sign that traders are “heavily betting on a painful move back below $100,000” [1]. As of August 6, Bitcoin had dropped more than 3% in the past seven days, trading at approximately $114,075 [1].

The shift in positioning has also affected the skew, a measure of relative demand for puts versus calls. Over the past month, the 30-day skew for Bitcoin has fallen to around -2% from +2%, while Ethereum’s 30-day skew has moved to -2% from +6%. This change reflects an uptick in hedging activity. Additionally, monthly implied volatility for Bitcoin is currently near 35%, and for Ethereum, it is approximately 65%. The volatility gap has widened from around 24 percentage points in early June to nearly 30 points, indicating a more uncertain and volatile market outlook for Ethereum [1].

Despite this hedging activity, Derive’s price probability estimates suggest a mixed outlook. For Ethereum, there is a 25% chance it will fall below $3,000 before the end of August, but a 30% probability it will finish above $4,000—up from 15% the previous week. For Bitcoin, there is an 18% chance of testing the $100,000 level again before the end of the month [1].

This cautious stance appears to have emerged following the July Federal Reserve meeting, where officials maintained the current funding rate despite two dissenting votes in favor of a rate cut—Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. This marked the first time in 30 years that the Fed did not issue a unanimous decision. The outcome has increased speculation of a rate cut at the upcoming September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the CME FedWatch tool showing an 85.5% probability of a rate reduction [1].

Source: [1] Options data and analysis from Derive.xyz shared with The Block [https://www.theblock.co/post/365764/derive-options-bearish-tilt-btc-eth-august-pullback?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss]