Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Purge of Weak Hands Paves Path to $150K Rally

Bitcoin's recent volatility has sparked intense debate among analysts, with some predicting a dramatic rebound to $150,000 by year-end. The cryptocurrency plummeted from $125,000 to $104,782 in early October amid a market crash triggered by President Donald Trump's 100% tariff announcement on Chinese software imports, wiping out $19 billion in leveraged positions across exchanges . However, prominent analyst Ash Crypto, who had warned of the crash weeks earlier, now sees a potential parabolic rebound in the final ten days of October .

A "Pump-Then-Dump" Scenario Unfolds

Ash Crypto's forecast, outlined on October 1, anticipated a sharp correction to liquidate weak hands before a Q4 rally . His prediction aligned with the October 10 crash, where Bitcoin dropped 15% in hours, and Ethereum fell 20%. The sell-off was exacerbated by leveraged trading, with over 1.6 million traders liquidated as forced closures cascaded through markets . Despite the chaos, Ash argues the dip is a necessary purge: "When fear peaks, strong buyers usually step in," he said, suggesting the market is now poised for a surge .

Trump Tariffs and Market Psychology

The crash followed Trump's abrupt tariff announcement, which rattled global markets and sent investors fleeing to safe havens like gold . While some speculated about insider trading or "whale" manipulation-such as an anonymous trader netting $88 million by shorting Bitcoin-experts attribute the crash to broader macroeconomic forces and leverage-driven panic . "This was a textbook example of how leverage amplifies volatility," said Samir Kerbage of Hashdex .

Institutional Optimism and Geopolitical Factors

Despite the turmoil, bullish sentiment remains strong. A Coingecko survey found 86.7% of crypto participants expect Bitcoin to surpass its $124,128 all-time high in 2025, with 40.1% targeting $125,000–$150,000 . Institutional investors, including Galaxy Digital's Mike Novogratz, see potential for a $200,000 price tag if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish policy . Meanwhile, China's expanding money supply (M2) has historically correlated with Bitcoin rallies, with analysts noting the current ratio of China/US M2 at 1.8-a level last seen before major bull runs .

Skepticism and the Path Forward

Retail investors remain skeptical. Forum users criticized analysts for "predicting various numbers and then later claiming they were right because 1 out of 40 was true" . However, 10x Research and other analysts caution that Bitcoin could swing $20,000 in either direction in early Q4, with key support at $109,898 and resistance at $115,000 . If the Fed signals rate cuts-a widely anticipated move-Bitcoin could gain further momentum, bolstered by institutional demand and waning bearish sentiment.

Historical Parallels and Market Resilience

The October crash echoes historical patterns. Ash Crypto drew a comparison to the 18th-century South Sea Bubble, where panic gave way to strategic buying opportunities . Similarly, October has historically delivered 21% average gains for Bitcoin, with 73% of years posting net gains . If the current dip follows suit, a Q4 rally could mirror past recoveries, though geopolitical risks-including renewed trade tensions or regulatory shifts-remain critical variables .

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[2] Uptober 2025 Forecast: Top Analyst Predicts Early Dip Before ... (https://coinpedia.org/news/uptober-2025-forecast-top-analyst-predicts-early-dip-before-bitcoin-ethereum-rally/)

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[4] Survey: 4 in 5 Expect Another Bitcoin All-Time High This Year (https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/bitcoin-ath-predictions-2025)

[5] Why crypto briefly but dramatically crashed when Trump renewed ... (https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/13/business/crypto-bitcoin-price-drop-trump-tariffs)

[6] Did Trump's Tariff Trigger A Crypto Purge Or Just A ... (https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/10/11/did-trumps-tariff-trigger-a-crypto-purge-or-just-a-panic/)

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[8] Crypto markets violently crash after Trump's latest tariffs (https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/business/crypto-bitcoin-xrp-trump-100-china-tariff)

[9] Crypto crash: Bitcoin plummets after Trump imposes ... (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/crypto-bitcoin-crash-trump-china-tariff-b2843621.html)

[10] Bitcoin Price Momentum Could Be Tied to China, but Will Markets ... (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/08/23/bitcoin-price-momentum-could-be-tied-to-china-but-will-markets-follow-through/)

[11] Bitcoin Price Analysis 2025: Bitcoin Geopolitics To Boost BTC USD (https://99bitcoins.com/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-2025-technical-analysis-geopolitical-impacts/)

[12] Bitcoin Q4 2025 Forecast: BTC Could Move $20K Amid Weak (https://coinpedia.org/news/bitcoin-q4-2025-forecast-btc-could-move-20k-amid-weak-uptober-rally/)

[13] Historical Q4 Rallies Suggest Strong Bitcoin Price Action in 2025 (https://blocknews.com/historical-q4-rallies-suggest-strong-bitcoin-price-action-in-2025/)