Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Profit Supply Crosses Threshold—Correction or Breakout?

Bitcoin’s supply in profit has reached a critical threshold, according to on-chain analyst Darkfost, raising questions about whether the cryptocurrency is nearing a pivotal turning point in its market cycle. The metric, which measures the percentage of circulating Bitcoin supply currently above its cost basis, has long been used to identify major phases in the asset’s lifecycle. Currently, the figure is at historically significant levels, which Darkfost explains is a natural part of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, often preceding periods of strong bullish momentum or marking the beginning of a correction phase. Historically, when the supply in profit drops below 90%, the market often transitions into a corrective phase, according to the analyst.

This development comes as Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, trading just above $112,900 after a recent pullback from the $123,000 level. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages currently act as resistance between $115,700 and $116,600, while the 200-day moving average at $111,600 provides a crucial support level. If bulls fail to reclaim this zone, further downside toward the $108,000 level becomes increasingly likely. The fragile momentum suggests that the market is waiting for a decisive catalyst to break out of its range-bound behavior. Darkfost’s analysis underscores the importance of the current on-chain metrics as potential indicators of Bitcoin’s next major move [1].

At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs continue to hold a substantial portion of the cryptocurrency’s supply. As of August 31, 2025, ETFs have accumulated more than 1.47 million BTC, representing 7% of Bitcoin’s theoretical maximum supply of 21 million coins. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) remains the largest holder, with over 746,810 BTC in its portfolio. Despite this institutional demand, the pace of accumulation has slowed, with Bitcoin ETPs experiencing a net outflow of $301 million in August. This shift suggests that investor enthusiasm is cooling, and some large holders are beginning to reallocate capital to other assets, particularly Ethereum [2].

Ethereum has been the main beneficiary of this trend, with a major whale exchanging 4,000 BTC for 96,859 ETH in a single 12-hour period. This transaction alone added $3.8 billion in Ethereum to the whale’s portfolio, and nine other large addresses collectively bought $456.8 million worth of ETH. The shift in capital toward Ethereum is being interpreted by some analysts as a sign of changing sentiment in the market, particularly as Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase. The increased interest in Ethereum comes as the network prepares for its next major milestone, with the potential for regulatory developments and upgrades driving further momentum [2].

September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, and the current environment is no exception. With the U.S. SEC expected to make decisions on 92 pending crypto ETF applications in the coming months, the regulatory landscape remains a key factor influencing market sentiment. Additionally, the timing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions will play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Research firm Delphi Digital has suggested that a price increase before the Fed’s announcement could trigger a sharp correction afterward. If the market remains stagnant ahead of the decision, Bitcoin may continue to trade within its current range [2].

The combination of on-chain signals, institutional activity, and macroeconomic factors highlights the complexity of the current Bitcoin cycle. While the supply in profit metric indicates a potential turning point, the market’s reaction will depend on how investors interpret and act upon these signals. With both bulls and bears closely watching key levels and developments, the next few weeks could determine whether Bitcoin regains upward momentum or enters a deeper correction phase [1].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Supply In Profit Hits Historical Threshold (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1077244-20250829)

[2] ETFs Absorb 7% of Bitcoin Supply — How Long Can It Last? (https://coincodex.com/article/72528/bitcoin-etfs-hold-7-percent-of-supply/)