Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Price Swing Hinges on Powell's Jackson Hole Message

Anthony Pompliano, a well-known figure in the cryptocurrency space, recently analyzed the reasons behind Bitcoin’s recent price decline and outlined expectations for its future performance. Following a peak of over $120,000 in July 2025, Bitcoin has shown volatility, dipping below that level again in early August. Pompliano attributed this decline to several factors, including macroeconomic uncertainty and conflicting signals from U.S. economic data such as the July CPI and PPI reports. These conflicting indicators have led to ambiguity regarding whether the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut in the near term, which in turn has created uncertainty in the market. As a result, Bitcoin’s price has experienced a sharp drop from its high of $124,128 to $114,170 in just one week [4].

The market is currently pricing in an 85% probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting, according to John Haar, managing director at Swan Bitcoin. However, there is widespread speculation that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may deliver a neutral tone during his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, allowing the Fed to retain flexibility in its policy approach [4]. This uncertainty has led to a split in expectations among Bitcoin options traders, with roughly equal volumes of bullish and bearish positions observed in the derivatives market. Adam Chu, chief researcher at GreeksLive, noted that while trading volumes are significant, short-term implied volatility has declined, suggesting that institutional investors are not anticipating major market-moving events from the symposium [4].

Despite the recent pullback, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan projected that Bitcoin will deliver annualized returns of 28.3% over the next decade, outperforming all major asset classes. Hougan also highlighted that Bitcoin’s volatility is expected to decrease to 32.9% during the same period, which, while still relatively high, represents a potential maturation of the asset class. These projections are part of Bitwise’s upcoming capital markets report, which will provide a data-driven forecast for Bitcoin’s returns, volatility, and correlations over the next ten years. Hougan added that rising institutional interest in Bitcoin—particularly from large platforms managing hundreds of billions of assets—has contributed to a shift in how the cryptocurrency is perceived, from a speculative asset to a core portfolio holding [3].

The increasing adoption of Bitcoin is also evident in the growth of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have attracted over $54 billion in cumulative inflows since their launch in early 2024. The introduction of these ETFs has provided a more accessible and regulated avenue for retail and institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin. Additionally, the emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies, which collectively hold $111.2 billion in Bitcoin, has further reinforced the cryptocurrency’s status as a legitimate asset class. These developments have helped drive Bitcoin’s price to record highs and have set the stage for future growth, particularly as regulatory frameworks continue to evolve [3].

Looking ahead, the market’s reaction to the Jackson Hole symposium and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. A dovish tone from Powell is likely to support Bitcoin’s price, given the asset’s sensitivity to global liquidity conditions. Conversely, a hawkish stance could trigger renewed selling pressure in both equities and crypto markets. Pompliano emphasized the importance of monitoring Powell’s messaging, as the tone of his speech is expected to carry as much weight as the specific details of any policy announcement. This dynamic highlights the continued interplay between macroeconomic factors and Bitcoin’s price movements as the cryptocurrency integrates further into traditional financial markets [4].

Source:

[1] 18 Bitcoin ETFs and Their Fees, Promotions and Holdings (https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/spot-bitcoin-etf)

[2] New 401(k) Order Opens Opportunity for Protected Bitcoin ... (https://www.etftrends.com/crypto-channel/new-401k-order-opens-opportunity-bitcoin-etfs/)

[3] Bitcoin to outperform major assets with annualized returns ... (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1055784-20250821)

[4] Bitcoin Options Traders Split Ahead of Fed's Jackson Hole ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-options-traders-split-ahead-043028602.html)