Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Price Surge Driven by ETF and Corporate Demand Outpacing Mining Supply

Bitcoin's price trajectory has gained renewed momentum amid surging institutional and regional demand, with on-chain and market data indicating a potential catalyst for further appreciation. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.2 billion in net inflows on October 7, 2025, marking the seventh time in recent months that inflows have exceeded this threshold. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the flow, attracting $970 million, contributing to its $100 billion in assets under management and generating $244.5 million in annual revenue for the firm. Historical patterns show such inflows often coincide with short-term price peaks, with prior instances in 2024 and early 2025 aligning with Bitcoin's rally to over $123,000. The current price, above $124,000, suggests a potential new high could materialize as demand persists.

The role of institutional demand has shifted from whale-driven movements to a more structured dynamic involving U.S. and Asian liquidity. According to CryptoQuant, U.S. institutional activity, as measured by Coinbase Prime outflows, signals long-term accumulation, while Binance's inflows reflect retail and speculative activity in Asia. The Coinbase Premium Index (CPI), which tracks the price gap between Coinbase (USD) and Binance (USDT), remains positive, historically correlating with durable rallies. Conversely, the Korea Premium Index (KPI), or "Kimchi Premium," currently at moderate levels, indicates healthy regional demand but warns of speculative overheating if it exceeds 5%. Synchronized CPI and KPI readings-when both are positive-have historically driven sharp price surges, while divergences create volatility as leadership shifts between regions.

A critical factor underpinning Bitcoin's price resilience is the imbalance between demand and supply. Since the U.S. SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, over $150 billion in capital has flowed into these products, with ETFs now holding over 6% of the total circulating supply. Daily purchases from ETFs and corporate treasuries often exceed new Bitcoin mined by 10x, creating a "demand shock." Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, highlighted that corporate adoption and ETF inflows are consuming more Bitcoin than miners produce daily, creating upward pressure on the price. He predicted a year-end rally as this imbalance intensifies, with Bitcoin potentially surpassing $130,000 by 2026.

Technical and on-chain indicators further support a bullish outlook. The MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin's market value against its realized value, currently sits at levels comparable to May 2017, suggesting significant upside potential. The Pi Cycle Oscillator, tracking moving averages, has resumed a bullish trend, aligning with historical cycles where Bitcoin entered exponential growth phases post-halving. Additionally, the Bitcoin Cycle Master Chart indicates the asset still has room to grow before reaching overvaluation, with the upper boundary currently around $190,000. October, historically a strong month for Bitcoin (average return of 28.5% since 2013), could see prices testing $140,000, with a bull flag pattern on the daily chart suggesting a target of $145,000.

However, risks remain. Macro factors, including U.S. interest rate expectations and global equity market volatility, could temper momentum. While the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen, Bitcoin's inverse correlation to the DXY historically provides tailwinds if the index weakens. Additionally, Asian retail-driven inflows could trigger short-term corrections if speculative activity overheats. For a sustained rally, U.S. institutional demand must align with Asia's absorption of supply, as divergent regional dynamics have historically caused volatility. If Bitcoin reclaims the $114,000–$116,000 range, it could strengthen the bull case; a breakdown below $104,000, however, might signal a deeper correction.

[1] Coindesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/07/u-s-bitcoin-etfs-log-usd1b-inflows-again-a-level-that-s-marked-local-tops-six-times-before)

[2] Cryptopolitan (https://www.cryptopolitan.com/btc-us-institution-demand-asia-to-lead-surge/)

[3] Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-surge-etf-corporate-demand-outpaces-supply)

[4] Greenhaus Blockchain (https://www.greenhausblockchain.com/2025-bitcoin-outlook-insights-backed-by-metrics-and-market-data)

[5] FxLeaders (https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/10/03/bitcoin-targets-125k-as-macro-conditions-and-mvrv-model-signal-strong-breakout/)