Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Price Projected to Surge 35% in Q4 2025 as ETF Inflows and Gold Market Parallels Drive Bullish Outlook

Market analyst Ted Pillows has drawn attention to a potential 35% surge in Bitcoin’s price during the fourth quarter of 2025, citing historical parallels between the cryptocurrency and gold’s market behavior. His analysis, shared on X on July 26, highlights overlapping accumulation and re-accumulation phases in both assets. Gold’s breakout from below $2,000 to over $3,300 followed a prolonged re-accumulation period, and Pillows suggests Bitcoin is nearing the end of a similar cycle. If this pattern holds, BTC could surpass $160,000 by year-end [1].

Citi analysts have proposed a higher target, forecasting a potential $199,000 price for Bitcoin by Q4 2025. Their projection hinges on anticipated ETF inflows, which they estimate could add $15 billion to Bitcoin’s valuation, pushing its price upward by approximately $63,000 [2]. Meanwhile, Techi analysts argue that favorable global liquidity conditions could see BTC reach $200,000 in 2025 [3]. A more ambitious forecast from MSN suggests Bitcoin might surge to $300,000, though this scenario depends on maintaining key price levels amid potential market corrections [4].

Technical analysis offers a mixed outlook. Finbold’s Ali Martinez notes that Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $110,000 could enable a rally to $130,000 [1]. CoinDCX analysts, however, project a narrower range of $123,500–$125,000 if BTC sustains its position above $121,000 support [5]. As of July 2025, Bitcoin’s price stood at $118,216, with the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) trending upward. The 14-day RSI at 60.43 indicates near-overbought conditions but has not yet triggered a critical threshold [6].

Structural factors, including ETF inflows and historical price acceleration patterns, are also influencing predictions. Bitcoin Magazine analysts suggest Q4 2025 could mark a peak in the current cycle, driven by ETF-related demand [7]. Conversely, CryptoRank’s analysis of a falling wedge formation on the 4-hour chart highlights volatility, with BTC testing resistance near $118,347 [8]. AInvest analysts caution that failing to maintain $121,000 support could lead to downward pressure in Q4 [9].

While bullish forecasts dominate, uncertainties persist. The interplay between technical indicators, macroeconomic factors, and speculative demand will likely shape Bitcoin’s final-quarter performance. Analysts remain divided on whether the cryptocurrency will achieve multi-thousand-dollar targets or consolidate within tighter ranges, underscoring the need for continued monitoring of key price levels and market sentiment.

Sources:

[1] [Analyst predicts Bitcoin price for Q4](https://finbold.com/analyst-predicts-bitcoin-price-for-q4/)

[2] [Bitcoin Set for $199K Surge by Year-End, Says Citi Forecast](https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-bitcoin-set-for-199k-surge-by-year-end-says-citi-forecast)

[3] [Bitcoin Could Reach $200K in 2025, But Only If Liquidity...](https://www.techi.com/bitcoin-price-forecast-2025-200k-liquidity/)

[4] [Bitcoin to $300000? Traders warn of massive surge...](https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstories/bitcoin-to-300-000-traders-warn-of-massive-surge-before-next-great-depression-hits/ar-AA1JlMFN)

[5] [Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025, 2026-2030: Can BTC...](https://coindcx.com/blog/price-predictions/bitcoin-price-weekly/)

[6] [Analyst predicts Bitcoin price for Q4](https://finbold.com/analyst-predicts-bitcoin-price-for-q4/)

[7] [Does Bitcoin Have Less Than 100 Days Left In This Cycle?](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-100-days-left-in-this-cycle)

[8] [Satoshi-Era Whale Exit Fuels Volatility — What’s Next?](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/42313-bitcoin-price-prediction-satoshi-era-whale-exit-fuels-volatility-whats-next)

[9] [Bitcoin News Today: DeSoc Altcoin Surges 300% as XRP...](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-desoc-altcoin-surges-300-xrp-slides-3-solana-faces-uncertainty-q4-2025-2507/)