Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Price Pivots on Fed Cuts and ETF-Driven Demand Surge

Bitcoin's price action has ignited intense debate among traders and analysts as the cryptocurrency navigates critical technical levels and macroeconomic catalysts. On October 7, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $122,600, having recently breached the $125,000 mark and sparking speculation about its next major target. The focus now centers on whether BTC can sustain its bullish momentum to test the $135,000 resistance level, a threshold that could validate the ongoing bull market or trigger a consolidation phase.

Bitcoin's price trajectory has been shaped by a mix of on-chain activity and macro trends. On-chain data reveals that exchange balances have hit multi-year lows, with over 114,000 BTC-valued at $14 billion-moved off exchanges in recent weeks. This shift underscores growing long-term holder confidence, reducing short-term supply and tightening liquidity. Technically, BTC has broken through a falling wedge pattern and is approaching the $110,500 resistance level, a critical juncture that could dictate the next phase of its rallyCrypto News^[4]. Analysts highlight a bullish breakout scenario where BTC surpasses $110,500 and targets $120,000, with further upside potential to $135,000 if institutional demand remains robustAnalytics Insight^[7].

However, bearish indicators persist. A recent dip below $120,000 saw BTC test support at $114,000 and $108,000, levels that could act as temporary floors if the rally stallsCointelegraph^[1]. On-chain metrics, including weak bid liquidity and bearish divergences in momentum indicators, suggest a possible retest of these lower levels before a sustained breakoutCointelegraph^[1]. The 200-day moving average remains a key reference point, with bulls needing to maintain control above $119,345 to preserve the bullish structureThe Currency Analytics^[8].

The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts in October have amplified Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against traditional market volatility. With 92% of market participants expecting a Fed rate cut, analysts argue that reduced borrowing costs could drive capital into risk assets like BTCCoinDailies^[2]. Institutional demand has surged, particularly through spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $3.2 billion in inflows last week. BlackRock's purchase of 8,086 BTC-valued at $1 billion-further signals growing institutional conviction.

The post-2024 halving environment has also tightened Bitcoin's supply, reducing new issuance by 50% and historically correlating with price surges in the 12–18 months following the event. Combined with ETF-driven demand, this scarcity dynamic has created upward pressure. On-chain metrics like the MVRV Z-Score and rising active addresses reinforce the network's health, suggesting a market not yet overheated.

A continuation of the current bull trend hinges on maintaining institutional inflows and macroeconomic stability. If BTC clears $135,000, analysts project a potential run toward $150,000, aligning with historical patterns post-halving and ETF-driven adoption. However, a breakdown below $115,000 could trigger a deeper correction, retesting the $108,000–$110,000 range established in late SeptemberCointelegraph^[1].

Short-term volatility remains a risk. The US government shutdown and weakening dollar have bolstered Bitcoin's safe-haven appeal, but sudden shifts in Fed policy or regulatory crackdowns could disrupt the bullish narrative. Derivatives markets show rising open interest and positive funding rates, indicating speculative long positions, though liquidation heatmaps warn of potential short-covering at $126,350The Currency Analytics^[8].

Bitcoin's path to $135,000 and beyond depends on a delicate balance between institutional participation, macroeconomic conditions, and technical resilience. While the current market structure favors bulls, investors must remain cautious of potential corrections. Key levels to monitor include $120,000 (critical support), $135,000 (channel high), and $117,500 (pivot support)Analytics Insight^[7].

The fourth quarter historically favors Bitcoin, with October often marking a seasonal peak. If the $120,000–$125,000 range holds, BTC could enter a new phase of price discovery, potentially reaching $150,000 by year-end. Conversely, a breakdown below $115,000 would signal a shift in market dynamics, necessitating a reevaluation of risk exposure.