Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Price Hits 75% Yearly Gain as MVRV Metric Warns of Market Peak

Analysts have raised concerns that Bitcoin’s current price surge may be approaching a critical turning point, citing the Market Value to Realized Value 365-day moving average (MVRV 365DMA) as a cautionary signal. The on-chain metric, historically used to identify market cycle peaks, is now mirroring the dual-peak structure observed in 2021, when a two-phase rally culminated in a prolonged bear market. According to Yonsei_dent, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the 2025 cycle appears to be following a similar trajectory, with the first peak already formed and a potential second peak projected around September 10 if historical patterns hold [1]. This development has prompted calls for heightened risk management as traders navigate the potential inflection point in the market cycle.

The MVRV 365DMA, which measures the average profit or loss of Bitcoin holders over a one-year period, has served as a reliable indicator of market tops in the past. In 2021, the metric formed a dual-peak structure before Bitcoin entered an extended downtrend. Yonsei_dent’s analysis suggests the current setup aligns with this pattern, with the first peak occurring in late 2024 and a second potential peak looming. However, the analyst emphasized that the MVRV 365DMA is a lagging indicator, meaning Bitcoin’s actual price peak could arrive earlier—possibly as soon as late August—despite the asset’s recent push toward $119,000 [1].

While on-chain indicators signal caution, Bitcoin’s price action has remained resilient. As of July 28, BTC traded at $118,800, up 0.5% in the past 24 hours and 75% higher over the last year. However, its weekly performance has been nearly flat at 0.1%, suggesting a consolidation phase. Over the past month, the cryptocurrency has oscillated between $115,184 and $119,959, maintaining a tight trading range. This consolidation has fueled bullish sentiment, particularly after a weekly close above $119,000, which some analysts view as a potential catalyst for a breakout from a long-term bull flag pattern [1].

Underlying risks, however, persist. A bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), highlighted by CryptoVizArt, could undermine bullish momentum. Additionally, a liquidation cluster around $113,600 and $114,000 remains a mid-term downside risk. These structural imbalances underscore the tension between near-term optimism and the caution warranted by on-chain metrics. Yonsei_dent urged traders to prioritize on-chain timing over price action, advising that “optimism and caution must coexist” in the face of macroeconomic uncertainties, including anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [1].

The coming six weeks will be critical in determining whether the current bull cycle transitions into a bearish phase. If Yonsei_dent’s assessment holds, the next key juncture will be the potential formation of the second peak around September 10. Until then, traders face a delicate balancing act between capitalizing on near-term gains and mitigating risks posed by structural imbalances in holder positioning.

Source: [1] [Bitcoin's MVRV Ratio Flashes Warning: Top of the Cycle Incoming?][https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoins-mvrv-ratio-flashes-warning-top-of-the-cycle-incoming/]