Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Price Could Hit $194,000 With 1% 401(k) Allocation Shift

The potential inclusion of Bitcoin in U.S. retirement plans has ignited a new wave of speculation, with a 1% allocation shift in 401(k) assets potentially pushing the price of Bitcoin to $194,000, according to a recent Bitwise report [1]. This scenario is based on the current $12.2 trillion in employer-sponsored retirement accounts, including 401(k) plans, which vastly outsize the total value of the global crypto market today. The report estimates that even a modest 1% reallocation from these retirement funds—approximately $87 billion—could significantly reshape the supply-demand dynamics of Bitcoin [2].

Bitwise’s analysis suggests a linear relationship between increased investment flows and Bitcoin’s price movement, drawing on the asset’s historical performance sensitivity to changes in weekly global ETP (Exchange Traded Product) flows. With Bitcoin currently trading around $119,000, a 1% inflow could push the price to roughly $193,970 [3]. If the trend scales, a 10% shift in retirement allocations—roughly $1.22 trillion in buying power—might send Bitcoin’s price toward $868,700 [4]. These projections hinge on the assumption that retirement investment structures, particularly through ETFs, facilitate the inclusion of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 401(k) plans [5].

The regulatory landscape has shifted in favor of this possibility. A recent executive order signed by U.S. President Donald Trump on August 7 directs the Department of Labor, SEC, and Treasury to expand access to alternative assets within 401(k) plans, explicitly mentioning cryptocurrencies alongside real estate and private equity [6]. The directive also calls for regulatory clarity on fiduciary responsibilities to encourage plan sponsors to offer crypto investments while ensuring alignment with the best interests of savers [7].

If implemented, this could pave the way for major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity to offer spot Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs within 401(k) structures, either as standard offerings or through self-directed brokerage windows [8]. This would represent a significant shift in the perception and accessibility of crypto among the broader investing public, particularly among younger demographics who are already showing strong interest in digital assets [9].

However, the path is not without challenges. Bitcoin’s historical volatility, which has seen it drop by 70–80% during bear markets, remains at odds with the traditionally conservative nature of retirement investing [10]. Moreover, regulatory uncertainty, fiduciary liability concerns, and potentially higher fees associated with alternative or crypto structures could deter rapid adoption [11]. Plan sponsors are likely to wait for clearer guidance under ERISA before integrating crypto into their core investment offerings [12].

The market has already begun to respond to these developments. U.S. spot crypto ETFs have seen record subscription levels in recent months, while liquidity has improved and bid-ask spreads have narrowed [13]. These signs suggest that institutional infrastructure is adapting to accommodate a growing interest in crypto-based retirement strategies.

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Source: [1]https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689c52d80023947b43616f80/ [2]https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689c52d80023947b43616f80/ [3]https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689c52d80023947b43616f80/ [4]https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689c52d80023947b43616f80/ [5]https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689c52d80023947b43616f80/ [6]https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689c52d80023947b43616f80/ [7]https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689c52d80023947b43616f80/ [8]https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689c52d80023947b43616f80/ [9]https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689c52d80023947b43616f80/ [10]https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689c52d80023947b43616f80/ [11]https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689c52d80023947b43616f80/ [12]https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689c52d80023947b43616f80/ [13]https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/689c52d80023947b43616f80/