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The recent surge in the U.S. federal deficit, now at a record $37 trillion, has sparked discussions among analysts regarding its potential influence on Bitcoin's price trajectory. With concerns mounting over inflation and the likelihood of monetary policy adjustments, including quantitative easing (QE), many are speculating that these factors could drive
to unprecedented levels. Specifically, some analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach $132,000 by August 2025, primarily due to its historical correlation with U.S. debt levels and money supply growth [1].Quantitative easing involves large-scale bond purchases by central banks, which inject liquidity into the financial system. This can lead to higher inflation, prompting investors to seek assets that retain value amid currency devaluation. Bitcoin, with its capped supply of 21 million coins, is increasingly viewed as a hedge against inflation. Advocates argue that as the money supply grows, so does the appeal of Bitcoin as a scarce, store-of-value asset [1].
Bitcoin’s price has historically mirrored trends in the U.S. debt. Since 2020, U.S. debt has increased from $26.7 trillion to over $37 trillion, a 38% rise over five years. Over the same period, Bitcoin’s price surged by more than 925%. This suggests a direct correlation between the expansion of the money supply and Bitcoin’s valuation. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget crypto exchange, noted that this trend is likely to continue as the U.S. government explores ways to manage its growing debt [1].
Analysts have highlighted the potential for Bitcoin to surpass $132,000 by the end of 2025 if the global M2 money supply continues to expand. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, based his projection on Bitcoin’s historical correlation with fiat money supply. Additionally, if the U.S. Federal Reserve adopts expansionary monetary policy, Bitcoin could climb even higher, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, who forecast a price of up to $250,000 in such a scenario [1].
The current U.S. deficit, coupled with the potential for QE, has led to heightened interest in Bitcoin as a strategic asset in an inflationary environment. Investors are advised to remain vigilant and consider Bitcoin's role in diversifying portfolios amid economic uncertainty. As the U.S. debt climbs and the implications for monetary policy become clearer, the market will likely continue to react to these developments.
Sources: [1] "US Deficit Growth and Monetary Policy Could Influence Bitcoin Price Potential Towards $132,000 by 2025 August 13, 2025" (https://en.coinotag.com/us-deficit-growth-and-monetary-policy-could-influence-bitcoin-price-potential-towards-132000-by-2025/)

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