Bitcoin News Today: Why Bitcoin’s Price Future Hinges on More Than Halving Cycles

Analysts have raised skepticism about the prevailing view that Bitcoin will reach a peak in the fourth quarter of 2025, emphasizing the limitations of relying on historical halving cycles. Cryptocurrency analyst PlanC, in a recent post on X, argued that such predictions are based on flawed statistical reasoning, akin to assuming a coin will land on tails after a series of previous tails. According to PlanC, the first three halving events do not provide sufficient data to establish a reliable pattern for Bitcoin’s price movements. Additionally, the increasing influence of Bitcoin Funding and the massive inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest that the halving cycle is no longer a relevant factor in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory, with the peak in Q4 2025 being more of a self-fulfilling prophecy driven by psychological factors rather than fundamental changes in the market [1].

Contrary to PlanC’s view, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal, has predicted a potential bear market, with Bitcoin possibly dropping to a bottom of $50,000 by late 2026. His analysis is based on historical four-year cycles, which indicate that Bitcoin tends to peak roughly 18 months after a halving event and then retraces significantly. Wedson cautions that despite the current bullish phase, external factors such as global liquidity and institutional demand could disrupt these patterns. He also highlights the possibility of a sharp drop if the market continues to operate under the assumption that this time will be different [2].

Other analysts, however, challenge this bearish outlook. Quinten Francois, host of CoinCompass, argued that while a local top in Q4 2025 is possible, the broader cycle is likely to extend further, as the liquidity cycle has not yet concluded. Francois emphasized that Bitcoin’s overall trajectory remains bullish, despite the short-term volatility [2]. This divergence in viewpoints underscores the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s price movements, with no consensus on whether the Q4 2025 peak is a realistic expectation or a statistical fallacy.

The role of institutional and corporate investors in shaping Bitcoin’s price dynamics has also become a focal point in the debate. Recent data shows that Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) now hold over 1.47 million BTC, accounting for 7% of the cryptocurrency’s maximum 21 million supply. The largest share of these holdings is attributed to US-based ETFs, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) alone holding over 746,810 BTC. These figures indicate a growing institutional appetite for Bitcoin, but the data also reveals that demand for Bitcoin ETPs has been slowing down, with global ETPs experiencing a net outflow of $301 million in August [3].

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s adoption by traditional financial institutions continues to influence its price trajectory. Pseudonymous analyst PlanC suggested that Bitcoin’s path to $1 million may be a slow and steady process, with moderate corrections between 10% and 30% rather than the deep bear markets seen in the past. Institutional adoption, including spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries, is expected to stabilize liquidity and reduce the likelihood of extreme price swings. This view contrasts with more bullish forecasts, such as those from Samson Mow and Brian Armstrong, who predict a much faster ascent to the $1 million level, either by 2025 or 2030 [4].

The latest developments in the market highlight a complex interplay between historical patterns, institutional demand, and macroeconomic factors. While some analysts remain cautious about the validity of historical cycles, others point to the growing structural demand from institutional investors as a stabilizing force for Bitcoin’s price. As the debate continues, the outcome will likely depend on how these factors evolve in the coming months and years.

Source:

[1] title1 (https://www.panewslab.com/en/articles/6d5fad56-e2be-4587-9ced-82d27fee98f7)

[2] title2 (https://cryptopotato.com/why-bitcoins-btc-4-year-cycle-points-to-a-50k-crash-by-2026/)

[3] title3 (https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-etps-now-hold-7-of-bitcoins-maximum-supply-202509020752)

[4] title4 (https://www.bitrue.com/blog/bitcoin-slower-climb-to-1-million)