Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Price Cycles Lose Predictive Power Amid Market Structure Shifts

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year price cycles have come under scrutiny as market participants question whether historical patterns remain predictive. Pierre Rochard, a prominent Bitcoin advocate, argues that the halving events—historically associated with price surges—have lost much of their impact, as 95% of Bitcoin’s supply has already been mined. Rochard noted that current demand is increasingly driven by retail spot buyers, exchange-traded products, and corporate treasury purchases, rather than speculative trading dynamics. This shift, he claims, alters how price movements may unfold moving forward [1].

Max Keiser, a digital-asset commentator and advisor to El Salvador’s president, echoed concerns about market stability. He warned of a potential sharp correction, attributing the risk to the growing use of leveraged Bitcoin derivatives. Keiser referenced the 2021 liquidation event, during which $10 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out in a week, leading to a steep price drop. He suggested that a similar scenario could play out again, especially if the derivatives market experiences a sudden downturn. Keiser’s views have found support among other market observers, including commentator Sergio Bermudez, who highlighted parallels between current conditions and past sell-offs [1].

Despite these warnings, Bitcoin remains above $120,000, having recovered from a recent dip to $119,590. The asset’s resilience has been bolstered by continued corporate accumulation. Michael Saylor’s firm, Strategy, added 155 BTC to its holdings in a recent purchase valued at approximately $18 million. The company now holds 628,946 BTC, valued at around $75.74 billion, with an average cost of $73,288 per coin [1].

The debate over Bitcoin’s cycles and potential correction comes at a time of broader market uncertainty. While some investors remain bullish on a “Bitcoin season” narrative, others are cautioning against over-reliance on historical patterns. The evolving nature of Bitcoin’s market structure—shaped by retail participation, institutional buying, and derivatives exposure—suggests that future price behavior may diverge from past trends. As the crypto market continues to mature, the role of leverage, liquidity, and macroeconomic factors will likely become more pronounced in shaping price outcomes [1].

Source: [1] Bitcoin Cycles Questioned as Max Keiser Warns of Price Correction (https://cryptofrontnews.com/bitcoin-cycles-questioned-as-max-keiser-warns/)