Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Price Action Signals Weakening Demand Amid Market Uncertainty

Bitcoin's performance over the past four months has sparked a mix of optimism and fear of missing out (FOMO), with its latest all-time high (ATH) leaving many to wonder if it could push even higher. The prediction platform Polymarket offered some insights into this question, highlighting a 43% chance that Bitcoin would stay above $120,000 by the end of July and only a 4% probability that it could surge to $140,000. This analysis suggests that the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching above $130,000 is somewhere in between these figures, indicating a lack of certainty regarding its potential upside by August.

While the probability of Bitcoin hitting $130,000 by August is relatively low, Polymarket revealed that the probability for the same target by the end of 2025 is significantly higher, at 77%. This reflects the market's bullish mid-term outlook. Whales and institutions have been at the forefront of the latest rally, driven by the push towards pro-crypto regulation. However, Bitcoin's price action has been relatively sideways since Monday, suggesting that the bullish momentum from the previous four weeks is cooling down. Demand from investors FOMO-ing into Bitcoin could potentially allow the bulls to resume their dominance, but several key factors could shift the outcomes.

One significant factor is the potential reignition of tariff wars by the U.S. in the coming weeks. The last time tariff wars were heated, the crypto market experienced a notable dip in sentiment. Additionally, analysts are closely monitoring the inflation situation, which continues to influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. This could add further pressure to the market and force investors to adjust their strategies in the coming weeks, potentially leading to another bearish phase if Bitcoin's price is disrupted. The remaining part of July may offer some buffer space, largely categorized by intense market manipulation.

Bitcoin's price action has exchanged hands above $118,000 after recovering from Friday’s low of $118,022. Its narrow and sideways range signals that demand is weakening. On-chain data reveals a surge in sell pressure, with Bitcoin exchange netflow data showing a shift between outflows and inflows in the last seven days. Exchange outflows on Binance were mostly dominant between BTC’s low in April and its recent highs. According to a recent analysis, roughly $2.7 billion worth of exchange inflows was observed since July 11, aligning with the cryptocurrency’s latest struggle to sustain bullish momentum. Exchange reserves bounced back from 2.39 million BTC on July 10 to 2.43 million BTC by July 18, confirming significant profit-taking. There was a noteworthy dip in BTC exchange inflows in the last 24 hours, which could signal that sell pressure was weak during the weekend. This could potentially set the pace for another rally in the coming week if demand prevails. However, large order-book statistics on Coinglass revealed that spot flows on three major exchanges were in the red. On the other hand, perpetuals, especially on Binance, signaled bullish bets amounting to over $400 million. The situation on exchanges highlights the possibility of another manipulation event, which could push BTC volatility higher. Bitcoin open interest remained high above $85 billion at the time of observation, indicating a high level of derivatives activity.