Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin pressured as Fed delays rate cuts, price drops to $115.7K

Bitcoin faces short-term challenges as the Federal Reserve adopts a more cautious approach to rate cuts, dampening market optimism and introducing volatility in the cryptocurrency’s price. The probability of a September rate cut has dropped to 43% from 63% in recent weeks, as highlighted by the CME Fed Watch tool, increasing expectations that the Fed may maintain its current 4.25%-4.50% rate range for now [1]. This shift has led to increased selling pressure on Bitcoin, which briefly dipped to $115.7K following the announcement before recovering to $118.5K [2]. However, the rally remains fragile, with altcoins underperforming and market participants bracing for upcoming inflation data that could further sway policy expectations.

The current bearish sentiment is also reflected in Bitcoin’s unrealized profit metrics, which reached a record $1.4 trillion according to Glassnode data [3]. This figure indicates that a significant amount of capital is at risk of being locked in if the price dips below key support levels. Analysts warn that a breakdown below the $114K-$115K range could trigger further losses toward $110K, amplifying short-term volatility [4]. Despite these risks, bullish liquidity conditions persist, and the possibility of a Fed pivot—similar to the December 2023 rate-cut cycle—could provide a renewed tailwind for Bitcoin [5].

Historically, Fed rate cuts have acted as a catalyst for risk assets, including Bitcoin. 21Shares crypto strategist Matt Mena noted that a Fed policy shift could generate similar momentum as seen in late 2023, when Bitcoin surged to $100K. However, the current hawkish tone suggests that such a scenario remains conditional on economic data and a clearer indication of inflation trends [6]. For now, the market is in a holding pattern, with traders closely monitoring the July CPI report and other macroeconomic signals to gauge the central bank’s next move.

Longer-term, Bitcoin remains within a defined range of $105K to $125K, and a sustained breakout above this level could set the stage for a move toward $141K [7]. However, a pullback into the $110K-$115K range could reignite selling pressure, especially given the relatively light volume in that area. Meanwhile, long-term holders continue to control about 53% of the supply, suggesting that while some distribution has occurred, the market remains concentrated [7]. This dynamic highlights the importance of sustained demand to absorb any new supply that may enter the market as prices rise.

Despite the near-term uncertainty, macroeconomic tailwinds are still in place. ETF inflows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have been positive in recent days, with $47 million in inflows recorded on July 31. This trend supports the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin and reflects a structural shift in market adoption [8]. Additionally, the crypto fear and greed index remains in the greed territory, though with a slight shift toward caution, signaling a more measured investor sentiment amid broader economic uncertainties, including U.S. tariffs and inflation pressures [8].

In summary, Bitcoin is navigating a period of short-term volatility driven by the Fed’s cautious policy stance and shifting expectations of rate cuts. While the immediate path is clouded by resistance levels and potential sell-offs, the long-term trajectory remains dependent on a potential Fed pivot. Investors are advised to monitor key economic indicators and maintain a balanced approach to risk management in an environment where macroeconomic factors continue to play a decisive role in Bitcoin’s performance.

Sources:

[1] COINOTAG - https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-may-face-short-term-pressure-amid-fed-caution-but-could-rebound-with-potential-rate-cuts/

[3] Glassnode - https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/176****011891800067

[5] 21Shares - https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-top-altcoins-bounce-fed-rate-hold-200m-liquidations-2507/

[8] Cryptonews - https://cryptonews.com/news/why-is-crypto-up-today-july-31-2025/