Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Poised for 65% Chance Breakout Toward $125K–$130K in 90 Days

Bitcoin is poised for a potential breakout after both Claude AI and ChatGPT identified a “compressed spring” setup near all-time highs, with a 65% probability of a bullish move toward $125,000–$130,000 within 90 days. At $117,832.50, Bitcoin is trading in a narrow daily range of just 0.95%, indicating consolidation ahead of a likely directional shift. Both models highlight strong institutional accumulation, with price remaining above all major exponential moving averages and volume metrics pointing to corporate treasury adoption rather than retail distribution [1].

The technical structure supports the bullish case, with Bitcoin maintaining momentum above the 20-day EMA at $116,935.93 and sitting within a neutral RSI range of 57.61, a divergence sign when near historic peaks. MACD indicators show mixed signals but hint at building bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the extremely high ATR reading contrasts with low volatility, forming what analysts call a “volatility paradox” often preceding large price moves [1].

Historical context reinforces this pattern. After a consolidative period from February to May 2025, Bitcoin surged in July, reaching near-$119,850 by month-end. This mirrors past consolidation-breakout cycles and suggests strong institutional confidence. The SEC’s recent approval of in-kind creation and redemption mechanisms for Bitcoin ETFs has further removed barriers for institutional adoption. Notably, companies like Strategy and Smarter Web Company have significantly increased their BTC holdings, reflecting a broader trend toward corporate adoption as a primary reserve asset [1].

Social sentiment also favors the bullish scenario. Despite Bitcoin trading near record highs, retail sentiment has dipped to yearly lows, with AltRank down 229 positions and Galaxy Score declining 13 points. However, 81% of social sentiment remains positive, with 90.98 million engagements and 292.17K mentions. This divergence between institutional accumulation and retail pessimism is viewed as a classic contrarian sign, historically preceding sharp price rallies [1].

Regulatory developments are also shaping the outlook. The White House’s release of a comprehensive crypto policy report and the anticipated implementation of the GENIUS Act have increased institutional confidence in allocating to Bitcoin. These regulatory strides, coupled with the JPMorgan-Coinbase credit card partnership, suggest a broader acceptance of crypto within traditional finance. Both AI models incorporate these policy tailwinds as key drivers in the 90-day forecast [1].

A 90-day scenario analysis outlines three possible paths. The most likely (65%) is a bullish breakout, with Bitcoin expected to surpass key resistance at $118,500 within 10–14 days and reach $125,000–$130,000 by mid-September. A 25% probability scenario projects a correction to $100,000–$112,000, driven by macroeconomic or regulatory shocks. A 10% chance of extended consolidation at $115,000–$120,000 is seen as a temporary pause, likely followed by a resumption of the bullish trend [1].

Key technical levels include immediate resistance at $118,500 and a critical breakout threshold above $119,000. Support levels are anchored by EMAs, with the 20-day EMA at $116,936 and the 200-day EMA at $100,042 offering psychological and structural floors. Both models warn of potential 10–20% daily swings during the breakout phase, urging traders to adopt conservative risk management, including profit-taking at $125,000, $135,000, and $150,000, and stop-loss placement below $107,000 [1].

Market structure continues to evolve, with declining exchange reserves and reduced mining selling pressure reinforcing the bullish thesis. Institutional demand is accelerating, with ETF inflows and broader access through traditional banking partners boosting liquidity. These dynamics, combined with Bitcoin’s scarcity profile and growing adoption, underpin the long-term optimism reflected in the 90-day projections [1].

Synthesizing the data, Bitcoin appears primed for a major upward move in the coming months. The convergence of institutional accumulation, technical consolidation, and regulatory clarity creates a favorable environment for a breakout toward $125,000–$130,000, with potential extensions to $140,000–$150,000 if conditions remain favorable. The current phase represents a critical inflection point in the year-long bull market, with the next 90 days likely to define the trajectory of Bitcoin’s 2025 rally [1].

Source: [1]Claude AI vs ChatGPT Forecast Bitcoin Breakout, ‘Spring’ Tension Targets $130K Peak (https://cryptonews.com/news/claude-ai-vs-chatgpt-bitcoin-spring-130k-breakout/)