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Bitcoin's price surged to $124,447 amid positive market sentiment fueled by the US Federal Reserve's easing expectations and recent policy developments, including a new decree enabling crypto investments in 401(k) retirement plans. However, the momentum reversed quickly following sharp profit-taking, with higher-than-expected producer price index (PPI) data dampening expectations of an early rate cut and triggering a near 5% pullback in Bitcoin’s value [1]. The cryptocurrency found support at $117,800 before stabilizing around $118,335 in CME futures [1].
Further downward pressure came from US Treasury Secretary Dr. Scott Bessent, whose initial statement denying any plans to purchase
resulted in a $55 billion market value loss in under 40 minutes. The Treasury later clarified that budget-neutral means of acquiring Bitcoin are still under consideration, partially restoring investor confidence [1].Despite these short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin remains within an ascending price channel, with key technical levels indicating a potential rebound. The $119,000 level serves as a pivotal support, with a breach below $117,500 risking a slide to $114,600. A sustained recovery above this level could push Bitcoin toward $125,440 and potentially $130,000, aligning with long-term bullish forecasts of $156,000 by year-end [1].
For this optimistic scenario to materialize, several macroeconomic catalysts must align. A Fed-driven rate-cut cycle is central to Bitcoin’s performance, and positive macro data in the coming months—particularly ahead of the September meeting—could reinforce a bullish trend. Additionally, a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions will likely support risk-on sentiment and crypto markets. The outcome of today’s Trump–Putin meeting is also being closely watched for its potential impact on global market dynamics [1].
While the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, outlined in a presidential decree in March, has yet to take concrete steps, the US Treasury currently holds 198,012 BTC, valued at approximately $23.5 billion. Analysts continue to monitor progress on this initiative for further clarity on potential government adoption of the cryptocurrency [1].
Sources:
[1] Bitcoin: Year-End $156K Scenario Requires Perfect Alignment of Macro Catalysts (https://www.investing.com/analysis/bitcoin-yearend-156k-scenario-requires-perfect-alignment-of-macro-catalysts-200665383)

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