Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Plunge Tests Institutional Resolve as ETF Outflows and Diverging Forecasts Fuel Uncertainty

Bitcoin's price action has plunged more than 30% from its October peak of $126,000 to around $87,000 as of late November 2025, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic shifts, ETF outflows, and leveraged liquidations. The $3.5 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since November-marking the largest monthly exodus since February-has eroded institutional support, while a $20 billion liquidation event on October 10 triggered a sharp bearish correction. Meanwhile, Phong Le, CEO of Strategy (MSTR), one of the largest institutional Bitcoin holders, has clarified that selling Bitcoin would be a "last resort" to fund dividend payments if the company's market net asset value (MNAV) drops below 1x. This admission has sparked debate about the future trajectory of BTC and the broader institutional Bitcoin ecosystem.

The recent selloff reflects a structural liquidity crunch. Stablecoin market capitalization has contracted by $4.6 billion since early November, with net outflows of $800 million last week alone. Centralized exchange volume has dropped nearly 40% from October's peak, exacerbating Bitcoin's vulnerability to volatility. On-chain data reveals a bifurcation in holder behavior: mid-tier "whales" (wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC) are accumulating at discounted levels, while large holders and retail addresses are exiting. This pattern mirrors historical redistribution phases in 2019 and 2020, which preceded multi-month base formations.

Phong Le's comments underscore the delicate balance between financial strategy and market narrative. Strategy, which holds 649,870 BTC valued at $58.84 billion, has prioritized Bitcoin yield as its "North Star." Le emphasized that selling Bitcoin would only occur to meet liquidity needs, not to chase short-term gains. However, he noted the tax advantages of selling high-cost basis BTC to offset capital gains-a nuance that contrasts with the firm's public identity as a "Bitcoin accumulator." Retail investors, Le acknowledged, often prioritize narrative over numbers, complicating communication around such decisions.

Price forecasts for Bitcoin remain deeply divided. Arthur Hayes of BitMEX predicts a potential rebound to $200,000–$250,000 if macroeconomic conditions trigger a liquidity reset, though this would require a dramatic shift in Federal Reserve policy. Conversely, institutional strategists like Peter Brandt warn of a deeper correction to $58,000 or lower, citing historical patterns of 70%+ drawdowns during bear cycles. The current technical landscape is equally contested: while Bitcoin has held key support levels around $80,900–$83,000, a breakdown below $84,000 could accelerate a move toward $75,000.

Macro factors further cloud the outlook. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has softened to 97.2, but Treasury yields remain near 4%, siphoning speculative capital from risk assets. Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has risen to 0.72, reinforcing its role as a high-beta asset rather than a macro hedge. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's December rate decision looms as a pivotal catalyst. A "hawkish cut" could delay a rebound, while a dovish pivot might reignite risk appetite and ETF inflows.

Institutional adoption, however, remains a stabilizing force. Harvard University has increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings to $443 million, while Japan's Metaplanet has allocated ¥15 billion ($100+ million) for BTC purchases in 2026. The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, holding 198,000 BTC as of August, further signals long-term confidence. These moves suggest that dips are being treated as strategic entry points, even as short-term sentiment remains fragile.

The coming months will hinge on three variables: the Fed's December rate decision, stabilization of ETF flows, and Bitcoin's ability to defend $84,000. A successful defense could trigger a rally toward $94,000–$100,000, while a breakdown would likely extend the bearish trajectory. Phong Le's stance-prioritizing yield over short-term liquidity-aligns with a long-term bullish bias, but the market's reaction to any potential sales remains uncertain. As the 2026 halving cycle approaches, the interplay between institutional strategy, macro policy, and retail sentiment will define Bitcoin's next phase.