Bitcoin News Today: Is Bitcoin's Plunge the Start of a Bear Market or a Setup for Rebound?

Bitcoin's recent price plunge has triggered a wave of defensive positioning among traders, with on-chain analytics firm Glassnode warning that the market is in a fragile state as it grapples with a sharp sell-off. The cryptocurrency fell below $105,000 on October 17, a four-month low, erasing $600 billion in crypto market value in just over a week. Analysts are now debating whether this marks the start of a prolonged bear market or a temporary consolidation ahead of a rebound.

The sell-off, which began with a flash crash on October 10, has reignited fears of a crypto winter. John Glover, chief investment officer at Ledn, told Forbes that the bull run is over, predicting a bear market lasting until late 2026. "We've completed the five-wave move higher and are now entering a bear market that could see Bitcoin trade down to $70,000 to $80,000," he said. This aligns with Glassnode's analysis, which noted that the recent drop flushed out weak positions and excess leverage, but the market remains vulnerable to further declines.

Despite the pessimism, on-chain data suggests some resilience. Glassnode reported strong net accumulation among smaller Bitcoin holders (1–1,000 BTC) since early October, even as prices slid from $118,000 to $108,000. The firm's Trend Accumulation Score indicates renewed confidence from retail and mid-sized wallets, while large holders have paused their distribution. Meanwhile, the MVRV Z-Score-a metric comparing market value to realized value-hovers near 2.15, a historically neutral range associated with accumulation rather than euphoria.

However, technical indicators remain bearish. Bitcoin's 200-day moving average currently sits at $107,500, and a break below this level could trigger a retest of the $100,000 support zone. David Siemer of Wave Digital Assets acknowledged the risk but expressed cautious optimism, citing potential catalysts like a Federal Reserve pivot to dovish monetary policy and regulatory clarity. "A choppy rebound is possible in the fourth quarter, led by Bitcoin and Ethereum," he said.

The market's fragility is underscored by conflicting signals. While Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for four consecutive days, institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors could provide a floor. Omkar Godbole of Coindesk noted that Bitcoin's price is at its most oversold level against gold in three years, with the 14-day RSI at 22.20. This divergence between Bitcoin and gold-a traditional safe-haven asset-has sparked debates about which asset is better positioned during economic uncertainty.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, argued in a blog post that Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle is losing relevance due to institutional demand and central bank policies. "The old script of volatility and bear markets every four years is fading," he wrote. However, historical patterns suggest caution. Since 2014, Bitcoin has experienced drawdowns of over 50% on multiple occasions, with the largest declines averaging 80%.

As the market digests these conflicting narratives, traders are closely watching key levels. A sustained rebound above $116,000 could validate the accumulation thesis, but failure to hold the $107,000–$110,000 support zone would likely deepen the sell-off. Glassnode's analysis of the 0.85 cost-basis band-a critical psychological level-adds another layer of uncertainty. "If buyers hold this zone, momentum can rebuild; if they lose it, the market revisits lower territory," the firm tweeted.

With macroeconomic risks-including U.S. debt concerns and potential trade wars-looming, the path forward remains murky. Investors are advised to adopt defensive strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging and maintaining position sizes that withstand a 50% decline. As one analyst put it, "Bitcoin bent but didn't break during the flash crash, but the question is whether this time really is different."

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[1] Bitcoin Suddenly Braced For A Massive 2026 Crypto Price Shock (https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/10/18/this-will-be-brutal-bitcoin-suddenly-goes-into-free-fall-as-price-crash-panic-wipes-600-billion-from-crypto/)

[2] Bitcoin (BTC) News: How Far Could Prices Fall Below $107K (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/16/how-deep-could-btc-crash-if-bulls-fail-to-defend-usd107k-usd110k-support-zone)

[3] Some investors are saying Bitcoin won't crash ... (https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/10/16/bitcoin-crypto-investors-flash-crash-halving/86721619007/)

[4] Bitcoin Market Outlook: October 2025 Accumulation ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-market-outlook-october-2025-125922719.html)

[5] Bitcoin Drop, Stock Crash, Gold Hit ATH: Recession 2.0? (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/crypto-currency-news/bitcoin-drop-gold-high-stock-crash-us-recession-2025-signs)

[6] Seller Exhaustion Emerges, but Bitcoin Remains at Risk of Further ... (https://cryptopotato.com/seller-exhaustion-emerges-but-bitcoin-remains-at-risk-of-further-losses-glassnode/)

[7] Glassnode: Recent Bitcoin Drop Cleared Out Market Excess, as ... (https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/10/20/glassnode-recent-bitcoin-drop-cleared-out-market-excess-as-positioning-is-much-cleaner-now/)

[8] BTCUSD Technical Analysis for Bitcoin - Barchart.com (https://www.barchart.com/crypto/quotes/%5EBTCUSD/technical-analysis)

[9] Bitcoin On-Chain Data Signals Slowdown, Eyes on ... (https://dailycoin.com/bitcoin-btc-data-signals-slowdown-ahead-2025-bull-rally/)

[10] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Hits the Most Oversold Level (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/17/bitcoin-hits-most-oversold-level-against-gold-in-3-years-as-btc-eyes-sub-usd100k)

[11] Bitcoin - Net Unrealized Profit/Loss [NUPL] (https://en.macromicro.me/charts/121412/bitcoin-nupl)

[12] Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) | BM Pro (https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/)

[13] Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) Chart (https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/net-unrealized-profit-loss)