Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Plunge Sparks Battle: Bear Market or Structural Shift?

Bitcoin's recent plunge below $90,000 has sparked debates over whether the cryptocurrency is entering a prolonged bear market or setting up for a sharp rebound. The asset, which erased all its 2025 gains after a 30% drop from its October peak, now trades near critical support levels, with market participants split on whether this marks the end of a cycle or a tactical buying opportunity according to market analysis.

The selloff has been fueled by a confluence of factors, including sustained outflows from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and a broader capitulation among retail and institutional holders. Data from SoSoValue shows Bitcoin ETFs recorded $492 million in outflows last week, with BlackRock's iBIT ETF and Fidelity's FBTC leading the exodus. Similarly, Ethereum ETFs saw $178 million in redemptions, with inflows last occurring on November 6 according to market reports. These trends underscore waning investor confidence, exacerbated by the October 10 deleveraging event that liquidated over $19 billion in crypto assets in a single day.

Derivatives markets further highlight the bearish sentiment. Bitcoin futures entered backwardation, where contract prices fall below spot levels-a rare occurrence typically signaling extreme fear. The three-month annualized rolling basis dropped to 4%, the lowest since November 2022, when Bitcoin hit $15,000 during the FTX collapse. Analysts note that similar backwardation episodes in 2023 preceded major reversals, suggesting the current environment could either mark the end of the selloff or a final flush of weak hands.

Technical indicators also point to oversold conditions. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index has fallen to 28, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 15, its lowest since February 2025. Meanwhile, the asset trades near its estimated production cost of $94,000, where miner shutdowns could reduce sell pressure and trigger a rebound according to market analysis. Some analysts argue that the $89,000–$90,000 support zone, reinforced by dense buy orders and two intraday rebounds this week, could act as a floor for accumulation.

Not all observers see a "crypto winter" on the horizon. Louis LaValle, CEO of Frontier Investments, argues that Bitcoin's current decline reflects a structural transition rather than a cyclical bear market. "This isn't the classic capitulation we've seen before," he said. "Bitcoin is evolving into a mature asset class with institutional adoption and liquidity that wasn't present in previous cycles." This view aligns with Bitwise's perspective that Bitcoin's value is rooted in its role as a non-sovereign wealth-storage tool, a service that gains utility as adoption grows.

However, skeptics remain cautious. CCN's Valdrin Tahiri warns that the market has entered a long-term bearish structure, with Bitcoin dominance likely to fall toward 58.5% and key total market-cap supports at $2.92 trillion and $2.50 trillion. He notes that while short-term rallies are possible, the larger trend remains downward.

Macro factors add to the uncertainty. The Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot has heightened liquidity stress, with a 47% probability of a December rate cut-down from 94% a month ago-leaving investors in limbo. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq has surged to 0.87, reflecting its role as a high-beta tech proxy amid a synchronized selloff in risk assets.

Looking ahead, catalysts such as the December 15 launch of Cboe's continuous Bitcoin futures and advances in quantum-resistant cryptography could influence the asset's trajectory. In the short term, Bitcoin must reclaim the $93,500 level to rekindle bullish momentum, with a breakdown below $89,000 risking a slide toward $83,000.