Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Plunge: Mid-Cycle Correction or Onset of Bear Market?

Bitcoin's price plunged below $90,000 on November 17, marking its lowest level in over six months and reigniting fears of a broader market downturn. The cryptocurrency, which trades at $90,128.00 as of Monday, has been pressured by a confluence of profit-taking, shrinking liquidity, and macroeconomic headwinds, according to DiPasquale of BitBull Capital. "The decline reflects a perfect storm: long-term holders selling after recent gains, deteriorating market liquidity, and institutional derisking amid tighter financial conditions," he explained. Maja Vujinovic of FG Nexus echoed these concerns, noting that Bitcoin's slide stems from a "convergence of macro and market structure factors." Technical indicators and on-chain data further underscore the bearish sentiment.

Bitcoin is currently testing support near $91,000, with traders closely watching whether it can stabilize before facing resistance at exponential moving averages (EMAs) clustered around $93,400 to $100,000. A daily relative strength index (RSI) below 30 signals oversold conditions, a level that historically has preceded rebounds-though false signals are common in volatile markets. On-chain metrics reveal over $160 million in liquidated long positions across major exchanges, while 65,200 BTC (worth $6.08 billion) was sold at a loss in 24 hours, highlighting short-term selling pressure. Meanwhile, whale activity-wallets holding 1,000+ BTC-has risen to a four-month high, suggesting accumulation by larger holders despite the selloff. The broader cryptocurrency market remains fragile, with Ethereum (ETH) and XRP also struggling. ETH, trading just above $3,000, faces bearish technical patterns, including a "Death Cross" as its 50-day EMA crosses below the 200-day EMA. XRP, hovering near $2.18, shows weak derivatives activity, with futures open interest averaging $3.6 billion, reflecting muted trader confidence. Spot ETF outflows exacerbate the weakness: U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded $255 million in outflows on Monday, extending weekly losses to $58.6 billion in net outflows. Ethereum ETFs fared worse, with $183 million in outflows on Monday, pushing cumulative outflows to $12.95 billion.

Market observers are also eyeing Bitcoin's potential correlation with macroeconomic events. A "hammer" candlestick pattern formed near $92,000 on the daily chart, a potential reversal signal that could gain traction if Nvidia's upcoming earnings report exceeds expectations. Bitcoin's 0.87 correlation with Nasdaq 100 futures over the past two weeks suggests a possible bounce if the tech giant outperforms forecasts. "If Nvidia impresses, we could see a short-term rebound toward $96,000 or $99,060," analysts noted. Despite these dynamics, market structure indicators suggest a mid-cycle correction rather than a full-blown bear market. The crypto market's average RSI stands at 43.09, with only 2.5% of assets overbought, a pattern seen in prior mid-cycle corrections (2021, 2023, 2024). Meanwhile, Bitcoin's negative MACD contrasts with 58% of assets showing positive momentum, signaling a transitional phase. "A confirmed bear market would require Bitcoin to remain below its 365-day moving average for 4–6 weeks and sustained heavy distribution by long-term holders," analysts cautioned.

Bitcoin's path forward hinges on its ability to hold key support levels and reclaim EMA clusters. While conditional scenarios point to potential rebounds, the market remains fraught with volatility, emphasizing the need for disciplined risk management.